* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL942007 08/30/07 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 35 42 51 59 65 73 79 85 86 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 35 42 51 59 65 73 79 85 70 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 31 35 41 49 58 69 82 94 83 SHEAR (KTS) 3 9 7 6 8 7 6 9 4 1 10 8 11 SHEAR DIR 304 1 19 59 36 44 32 53 58 209 240 222 253 SST (C) 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.5 28.6 28.8 29.0 28.8 28.6 28.5 28.7 28.8 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 142 143 143 146 148 151 154 151 148 147 150 151 156 ADJ. POT. INT. 144 147 149 153 154 158 162 157 154 153 155 155 159 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.5 -54.2 -54.3 -54.3 -54.2 -54.3 -54.2 -54.4 -54.5 -54.3 -54.1 -54.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 11 11 11 12 10 11 10 12 11 12 11 700-500 MB RH 57 61 58 59 60 55 59 55 56 51 52 54 55 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 7 7 7 6 6 5 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 12 12 10 5 1 -4 8 24 38 41 50 34 25 200 MB DIV 7 -7 -15 -13 -7 1 -2 11 -8 5 23 42 9 LAND (KM) 744 683 633 622 530 267 244 345 250 329 268 211 -30 LAT (DEG N) 11.0 11.1 11.2 11.4 11.5 12.2 12.9 13.7 14.3 14.9 15.3 15.5 15.6 LONG(DEG W) 49.5 51.0 52.5 54.2 55.8 59.0 62.4 65.9 69.5 73.5 77.5 81.3 84.8 STM SPEED (KT) 12 15 16 16 16 16 17 17 19 19 19 18 16 HEAT CONTENT 37 43 41 49 48 74 52 50 54 97 72 78 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 571 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 20.6 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 34.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 12. 19. 24. 30. 34. 38. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 9. 11. 12. 12. 12. 11. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 17. 26. 34. 41. 49. 56. 61. 64. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 7. 10. 17. 26. 34. 40. 48. 54. 60. 61. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL942007 INVEST 08/30/07 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.6 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : -7.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.2 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 25.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.6 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Scaled RI index= 3.6 Prob of RI= 11% is 0.9 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 4.2 Prob of RI= 29% is 2.4 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942007 INVEST 08/30/07 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY