* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL952007 08/30/07 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 32 35 42 50 56 58 58 55 54 49 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 32 35 42 50 56 58 58 55 54 49 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 30 34 39 45 49 51 49 47 44 SHEAR (KTS) 17 11 8 11 11 8 8 13 29 30 30 32 32 SHEAR DIR 337 5 351 346 356 356 290 262 268 275 289 282 277 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.1 29.0 28.6 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 153 153 150 149 148 153 152 151 144 142 142 142 140 ADJ. POT. INT. 127 127 124 122 121 128 128 126 119 119 120 122 120 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -54.1 -54.1 -54.0 -54.2 -54.3 -54.1 -54.1 -53.8 -54.1 -54.2 -54.6 -54.3 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 10 11 11 11 9 8 7 6 6 6 7 700-500 MB RH 52 56 56 54 54 53 51 56 50 50 44 47 44 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 8 8 7 6 6 6 6 5 6 5 7 7 850 MB ENV VOR 5 30 39 38 33 24 3 -6 -51 -49 -44 -8 21 200 MB DIV 2 24 14 -23 -10 23 4 34 -3 -9 -20 1 -4 LAND (KM) 464 454 437 428 419 443 483 396 367 505 684 884 1079 LAT (DEG N) 29.2 28.8 28.3 28.2 28.0 28.7 30.0 31.4 32.3 32.2 31.6 31.0 31.0 LONG(DEG W) 75.9 75.9 75.9 76.0 76.0 76.0 75.8 75.1 73.9 72.0 70.1 68.0 65.6 STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 3 2 1 5 7 7 7 8 9 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 45 44 49 52 55 45 52 39 39 16 13 20 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):175/ 7 CX,CY: 1/ -6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 600 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 20.1 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 9.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 9. 15. 19. 23. 26. 28. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 6. 7. 10. 12. 13. 12. 9. 7. 4. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 10. 18. 25. 31. 33. 34. 31. 30. 28. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 7. 10. 17. 25. 31. 33. 33. 30. 29. 24. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL952007 INVEST 08/30/07 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.7 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.4 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.5 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 6.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.1 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Scaled RI index= 3.2 Prob of RI= 6% is 0.5 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 3.7 Prob of RI= 15% is 1.2 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952007 INVEST 08/30/07 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY