* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * GIL EP102007 08/30/07 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 37 37 38 38 37 37 37 37 36 36 36 V (KT) LAND 35 36 37 37 38 38 37 37 37 37 36 36 36 V (KT) LGE mod 35 35 35 35 34 34 34 34 36 36 36 34 32 SHEAR (KTS) 19 16 12 14 14 12 9 7 12 13 19 15 16 SHEAR DIR 79 90 87 77 80 83 105 128 165 147 144 160 178 SST (C) 27.3 27.1 26.8 26.7 26.6 26.6 26.7 26.4 26.1 25.5 25.1 24.8 24.6 POT. INT. (KT) 137 135 132 131 130 129 130 128 124 118 114 111 109 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.6 -52.5 -52.1 -52.4 -52.7 -52.8 -53.2 -53.0 -53.2 -53.2 -53.2 -53.3 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 4 3 3 4 4 5 6 5 5 4 700-500 MB RH 78 76 73 70 71 65 60 54 50 46 44 41 43 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 10 10 9 9 8 7 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 75 69 68 64 68 60 59 37 38 15 5 -16 -15 200 MB DIV 26 5 3 2 11 -11 -23 -18 -2 -8 -13 -17 -2 LAND (KM) 461 523 601 680 749 906 1074 1265 1446 1618 1781 1956 2115 LAT (DEG N) 19.4 19.5 19.6 19.6 19.5 19.4 19.2 18.9 18.5 18.4 18.5 18.7 19.0 LONG(DEG W) 112.4 113.5 114.6 115.7 116.8 118.9 120.8 122.8 124.9 127.1 129.2 131.4 133.4 STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 10 10 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 566 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 25.2 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 11. 11. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 4. 3. 3. 1. 1. 1. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP102007 GIL 08/30/07 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.0 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.4 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.0 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.8 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 61.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.2 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 Scaled RI index= 2.8 Prob of RI= 5% is 0.4 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 2.9 Prob of RI= 5% is 0.4 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102007 GIL 08/30/07 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY