* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP952007 08/30/07 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 36 40 52 63 70 74 79 81 84 81 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 36 40 52 63 70 74 79 81 84 81 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 28 31 34 38 42 46 50 54 57 SHEAR (KTS) 19 18 13 12 14 14 11 20 14 8 8 8 10 SHEAR DIR 48 75 76 71 75 82 85 58 82 86 117 104 133 SST (C) 29.4 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.1 29.0 28.8 28.4 27.8 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 159 158 159 159 159 157 156 155 154 151 147 140 133 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.8 -53.4 -52.7 -53.2 -53.1 -53.0 -52.5 -52.6 -52.5 -52.4 -52.3 -52.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 8 9 8 9 9 9 8 7 7 6 6 700-500 MB RH 79 80 80 78 80 79 81 80 81 83 82 76 72 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 8 8 8 7 9 10 11 11 13 14 15 14 850 MB ENV VOR 21 22 13 9 5 9 17 16 25 38 44 61 60 200 MB DIV 58 87 89 82 80 89 99 99 36 67 74 70 32 LAND (KM) 408 383 373 387 401 438 434 469 447 484 533 461 362 LAT (DEG N) 12.2 12.6 13.0 13.3 13.6 14.1 14.7 15.3 16.2 17.1 18.0 18.9 20.0 LONG(DEG W) 97.6 98.6 99.6 100.6 101.6 103.4 105.0 106.5 107.6 108.9 110.1 111.2 111.6 STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 10 10 10 9 8 7 7 7 7 6 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 589 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 21.2 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 5. 11. 18. 25. 31. 34. 36. 37. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 7. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 5. 6. 8. 10. 11. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. 3. 2. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 12. 23. 35. 42. 48. 52. 54. 56. 54. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 7. 11. 15. 27. 38. 45. 49. 54. 56. 59. 56. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP952007 INVEST 08/30/07 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.2 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 79.2 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.7 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 84.8 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 50.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.2 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Scaled RI index= 3.9 Prob of RI= 25% is 2.0 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 4.0 Prob of RI= 31% is 2.4 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952007 INVEST 08/30/07 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY