* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL942007 08/30/07 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 31 34 42 49 57 64 71 78 84 86 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 31 34 42 49 57 64 71 78 84 86 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 30 35 42 49 59 70 82 93 99 SHEAR (KTS) 9 7 3 6 8 2 11 4 4 6 5 10 8 SHEAR DIR 334 339 353 353 14 90 354 35 358 190 275 243 274 SST (C) 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.4 28.6 29.0 28.9 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.7 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 141 141 143 145 148 154 153 148 148 148 149 149 155 ADJ. POT. INT. 145 146 147 150 154 160 158 152 153 152 151 147 152 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.1 -54.1 -54.2 -54.3 -54.0 -54.2 -54.0 -54.5 -54.2 -54.5 -54.1 -54.6 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 11 11 10 11 9 11 10 13 11 13 10 700-500 MB RH 57 54 57 58 58 53 60 54 52 49 52 52 56 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 8 8 7 7 6 5 3 1 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 16 14 8 1 -2 -10 15 23 20 17 13 2 7 200 MB DIV -17 -10 -16 -10 -9 -9 0 -9 -11 -11 17 -2 13 LAND (KM) 689 662 655 563 410 266 379 349 223 207 215 215 134 LAT (DEG N) 11.3 11.6 11.8 12.1 12.4 13.2 14.1 14.9 15.6 16.1 16.4 16.8 17.1 LONG(DEG W) 51.3 52.9 54.4 56.0 57.6 60.9 64.3 67.8 71.6 75.4 79.1 82.4 85.2 STM SPEED (KT) 14 15 15 16 16 17 17 18 19 18 17 14 13 HEAT CONTENT 42 42 47 49 60 76 62 52 71 47 89 57 93 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 614 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 21.9 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 12. 19. 24. 30. 34. 37. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 9. 11. 12. 13. 14. 14. 14. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 9. 16. 24. 33. 39. 47. 54. 60. 64. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 6. 9. 17. 24. 32. 39. 46. 53. 59. 61. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL942007 INVEST 08/30/07 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.5 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : -12.4 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.2 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 26.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.9 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 Scaled RI index= 3.5 Prob of RI= 10% is 0.8 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 4.1 Prob of RI= 26% is 2.1 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942007 INVEST 08/30/07 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY