* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED *
* INVEST AL952007 08/30/07 12 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 32 35 41 47 49 50 49 48 45 40
V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 32 35 41 47 49 50 49 48 45 40
V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 30 34 38 41 42 41 40 38 35
SHEAR (KTS) 13 11 12 13 8 22 22 35 33 38 34 37 45
SHEAR DIR 350 342 320 324 321 287 265 259 264 251 238 230 231
SST (C) 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.5 27.8 27.2 27.3 27.0 27.1 27.0 26.8
POT. INT. (KT) 147 144 146 147 146 143 135 129 131 126 127 126 124
ADJ. POT. INT. 119 114 118 120 121 121 117 114 116 111 111 111 108
200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.2 -54.1 -54.2 -54.5 -54.1 -54.4 -53.9 -54.3 -54.7 -55.6 -56.1 -56.1
TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 10 10 9 9 7 6 5 5 5 4 3
700-500 MB RH 53 54 53 51 53 49 46 45 43 46 46 45 46
GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 6 6 6 4 4 3 4 5 6 LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 49 44 62 62 45 43 15 3 15 23 22 -13 -35
200 MB DIV 30 41 0 5 35 11 21 2 -5 -6 -2 3 1
LAND (KM) 542 542 542 514 486 412 461 782 1083 1311 1486 1490 1401
LAT (DEG N) 30.4 30.4 30.4 30.7 31.0 32.3 33.8 34.5 34.0 32.9 32.5 33.3 34.5
LONG(DEG W) 74.0 74.0 74.0 74.0 73.9 73.2 71.3 67.4 62.7 58.9 55.8 52.3 48.9
STM SPEED (KT) 3 0 1 3 5 9 13 18 18 15 14 15 15
HEAT CONTENT 36 36 36 34 32 32 13 13 3 7 4 0 7
FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):110/ 5 CX,CY: 5/ -1
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 630 (MEAN=625)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 24.0 (MEAN=20.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=69.0)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 13. 17. 21. 23. 25. 26.
VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 4. 6. 8. 11. 12. 11. 8. 5. 3. 0. -5.
PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -11.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
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SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 11. 16. 22. 25. 25. 25. 24. 22. 18.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2.
GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
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TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3.
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TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 7. 11. 16. 22. 24. 25. 24. 23. 20. 15.
** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL952007 INVEST 08/30/07 12 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.4 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6
D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.2 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 93.5 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 16.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.0 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4
Scaled RI index= 3.0 Prob of RI= 5% is 0.4 times the sample mean(12%)
Discrim RI index= 3.6 Prob of RI= 13% is 1.0 times the sample mean(12%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952007 INVEST 08/30/07 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY