* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL962007 08/30/07 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 35 45 53 55 55 53 51 49 42 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 35 45 53 55 55 53 51 49 42 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 30 33 35 35 35 35 35 37 39 SHEAR (KTS) 5 8 13 15 18 36 49 54 50 39 33 24 33 SHEAR DIR 357 301 271 275 239 247 232 232 217 222 221 225 254 SST (C) 27.2 27.2 27.0 26.4 25.7 22.6 19.8 20.6 20.1 18.8 18.3 20.8 20.9 POT. INT. (KT) 124 124 122 116 110 90 81 84 82 77 76 84 85 ADJ. POT. INT. 100 101 100 95 91 79 74 76 74 71 70 75 76 200 MB T (C) -54.7 -54.6 -54.5 -54.5 -54.6 -54.3 -54.4 -53.4 -54.5 -55.0 -55.6 -55.7 -55.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 8 7 5 4 3 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 44 46 50 51 53 48 47 37 35 31 38 41 41 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 4 5 5 5 10 14 15 16 15 16 16 13 850 MB ENV VOR 27 19 42 46 50 78 70 69 72 62 56 67 42 200 MB DIV 8 42 19 21 39 37 55 27 31 15 7 51 52 LAND (KM) 492 461 412 384 347 258 289 317 440 387 502 730 1051 LAT (DEG N) 35.7 36.2 36.7 37.4 38.0 39.5 40.9 42.2 42.9 43.3 43.7 44.4 45.5 LONG(DEG W) 70.4 70.7 70.9 70.9 70.8 69.4 65.8 61.0 56.3 52.0 48.3 44.3 39.4 STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 6 7 8 12 17 18 17 15 14 16 18 HEAT CONTENT 12 11 9 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 576 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 27.9 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 2. 5. 7. 7. 8. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 4. 7. 9. 14. 16. 14. 11. 8. 7. 6. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -11. -14. -18. -21. -24. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 20. 28. 30. 31. 29. 27. 25. 20. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 7. 10. 20. 28. 30. 30. 28. 26. 24. 17. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL962007 INVEST 08/30/07 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.7 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 72.3 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 29.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.9 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 Scaled RI index= 2.9 Prob of RI= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 3.2 Prob of RI= 5% is 0.4 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962007 INVEST 08/30/07 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY