* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL972007 08/30/07 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 34 38 47 55 65 69 71 73 71 68 V (KT) LAND 25 27 26 26 26 27 27 27 32 34 36 34 31 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 24 25 26 26 27 27 33 37 40 41 42 SHEAR (KTS) 2 4 10 8 9 7 12 10 24 16 16 19 19 SHEAR DIR 300 286 315 322 348 277 279 266 256 246 237 224 220 SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.4 28.8 27.7 26.4 25.1 24.5 POT. INT. (KT) 160 160 158 158 158 160 160 158 148 133 118 106 101 ADJ. POT. INT. 149 150 148 147 147 149 149 148 138 124 109 97 93 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.3 -52.9 -53.2 -53.5 -52.4 -53.0 -52.3 -52.8 -52.3 -52.3 -51.6 -52.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 11 13 10 9 12 9 13 9 11 6 4 2 700-500 MB RH 80 78 77 78 80 80 83 81 80 72 70 67 64 GFS VTEX (KT) 4 4 3 3 3 3 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 12 3 0 9 19 28 39 54 55 64 66 82 92 200 MB DIV 40 44 48 35 38 52 34 75 25 39 35 42 24 LAND (KM) 92 35 -43 -129 -214 -245 -191 -66 119 215 203 331 496 LAT (DEG N) 19.5 19.7 19.9 19.9 19.9 19.9 20.1 20.4 20.7 21.2 21.7 22.2 22.0 LONG(DEG W) 95.0 96.0 97.0 98.0 98.9 100.8 102.7 104.7 106.8 109.0 111.5 113.9 116.1 STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 11 11 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 42 51 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 559 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 24.5 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 18. 23. 28. 31. 32. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 5. 6. 9. 10. 11. 9. 6. 5. 4. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 8. 12. 21. 30. 40. 45. 49. 50. 48. 46. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 9. 13. 22. 30. 40. 44. 46. 48. 46. 43. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL972007 INVEST 08/30/07 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.8 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.2 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 83.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 70.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.5 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 Scaled RI index= 4.7 Prob of RI= 38% is 3.1 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 4.8 Prob of RI= 44% is 3.7 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972007 INVEST 08/30/07 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY