* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * GIL EP102007 08/30/07 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 36 37 37 40 41 43 43 45 43 41 43 V (KT) LAND 35 35 36 37 37 40 41 43 43 45 43 41 43 V (KT) LGE mod 35 35 35 35 35 35 37 39 42 44 44 42 40 SHEAR (KTS) 12 11 14 14 11 5 5 5 5 10 13 13 12 SHEAR DIR 84 73 73 91 91 75 88 120 128 136 167 160 199 SST (C) 27.4 27.3 27.2 27.1 27.0 27.2 27.1 26.7 26.2 25.7 25.1 24.9 24.5 POT. INT. (KT) 137 137 136 135 134 136 135 131 126 120 114 112 107 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.5 -52.3 -52.5 -52.8 -52.5 -52.9 -53.0 -53.1 -53.1 -53.2 -53.3 -53.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 4 5 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 700-500 MB RH 78 75 70 71 71 61 57 54 49 45 44 41 40 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 12 11 11 10 10 8 7 6 6 5 4 4 850 MB ENV VOR 76 78 73 75 70 69 55 43 27 18 4 -8 -9 200 MB DIV 14 10 10 28 11 -11 -1 -11 -5 -26 -17 -13 -10 LAND (KM) 506 574 652 741 812 983 1154 1335 1500 1657 1804 1971 2110 LAT (DEG N) 19.1 19.1 19.1 19.1 19.0 18.7 18.4 18.2 18.1 18.1 18.4 18.6 19.1 LONG(DEG W) 112.7 113.8 114.8 116.0 117.1 119.2 121.1 123.1 125.2 127.3 129.4 131.5 133.4 STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 10 11 10 10 9 10 10 10 10 10 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 666 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 24.8 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 11. 13. 14. 13. 12. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -8. -9. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 3. 3. 6. 8. 10. 10. 11. 8. 7. 7. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 1. 2. 2. 5. 6. 8. 8. 10. 8. 6. 8. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP102007 GIL 08/30/07 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.3 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.6 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.0 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.0 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 43.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.8 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 Scaled RI index= 2.8 Prob of RI= 6% is 0.4 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 3.0 Prob of RI= 8% is 0.6 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102007 GIL 08/30/07 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY