* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP952007 08/30/07 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 37 41 52 65 75 81 87 89 91 88 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 37 41 52 65 75 81 87 89 91 88 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 26 27 30 34 38 44 50 56 60 62 SHEAR (KTS) 19 15 14 14 17 16 11 9 3 4 3 6 8 SHEAR DIR 73 65 58 62 63 58 59 75 109 105 104 122 169 SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.7 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.5 29.1 28.5 27.6 26.7 25.9 POT. INT. (KT) 159 160 160 162 162 162 161 159 156 150 140 130 121 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.3 -52.7 -53.0 -53.5 -52.2 -53.0 -52.3 -52.8 -52.0 -52.3 -51.6 -52.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 8 9 8 8 11 9 10 8 9 6 5 4 700-500 MB RH 82 81 79 81 81 80 84 82 82 80 76 73 68 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 7 7 7 8 10 11 13 15 15 16 16 850 MB ENV VOR 23 20 14 11 13 19 21 27 31 49 61 81 81 200 MB DIV 81 69 71 58 58 82 65 94 45 73 53 56 26 LAND (KM) 319 279 250 252 254 252 246 268 313 423 426 423 503 LAT (DEG N) 13.0 13.5 14.0 14.4 14.7 15.4 16.0 16.7 17.3 18.2 19.2 20.3 20.8 LONG(DEG W) 97.5 98.3 99.1 100.0 100.8 102.3 103.8 105.3 107.0 109.0 111.1 113.0 114.6 STM SPEED (KT) 7 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 9 11 11 9 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 652 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 18.6 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 5. 11. 19. 26. 32. 36. 37. 37. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 9. 8. 8. 7. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 6. 8. 11. 12. 13. 11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 11. 20. 34. 44. 52. 59. 62. 63. 60. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 4. 3. 2. 3. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 7. 12. 16. 27. 40. 50. 56. 62. 64. 66. 63. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP952007 INVEST 08/30/07 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.0 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 67.4 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 135.4 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 85.0 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 86.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.6 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Scaled RI index= 4.3 Prob of RI= 39% is 3.0 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 4.4 Prob of RI= 47% is 3.6 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952007 INVEST 08/30/07 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED