* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL942007 08/30/07 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 28 31 33 40 47 56 63 70 78 83 85 V (KT) LAND 25 27 28 31 33 40 47 56 63 70 78 83 85 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 30 34 40 47 55 66 78 90 97 SHEAR (KTS) 6 6 9 10 9 9 9 6 5 3 4 7 6 SHEAR DIR 354 45 38 30 42 31 39 11 15 265 299 324 321 SST (C) 28.3 28.4 28.6 28.7 28.9 29.0 28.8 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.7 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 143 145 148 149 152 154 151 148 148 148 149 148 156 ADJ. POT. INT. 148 151 154 155 159 160 155 152 151 150 150 146 152 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.8 -54.1 -54.2 -54.0 -54.3 -53.9 -54.0 -54.2 -54.1 -54.1 -53.9 -54.1 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 11 11 12 10 11 10 12 12 13 11 12 700-500 MB RH 52 56 61 59 57 56 56 54 49 54 54 58 60 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 8 7 7 7 6 5 3 1 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 11 8 3 -1 -5 0 18 19 21 26 23 17 14 200 MB DIV -18 -7 -2 -6 1 2 0 -1 9 -9 17 7 13 LAND (KM) 649 632 522 383 256 277 401 322 282 222 297 116 38 LAT (DEG N) 11.4 11.5 11.6 12.0 12.4 13.2 14.2 14.9 15.5 15.8 16.0 16.1 16.2 LONG(DEG W) 52.7 54.4 56.1 57.7 59.3 62.5 65.8 69.2 72.9 76.5 79.9 83.0 85.5 STM SPEED (KT) 15 17 16 16 16 17 17 18 18 17 16 13 12 HEAT CONTENT 40 47 49 63 72 53 56 48 95 59 89 57 79 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 610 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 26.1 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 12. 19. 24. 30. 34. 37. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 12. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 8. 16. 23. 32. 38. 46. 54. 59. 63. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 3. 6. 8. 15. 22. 31. 38. 45. 53. 58. 60. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL942007 INVEST 08/30/07 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.0 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : -6.4 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.5 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 31.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.1 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 Scaled RI index= 3.5 Prob of RI= 9% is 0.8 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 4.1 Prob of RI= 26% is 2.1 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942007 INVEST 08/30/07 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY