* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL962007 08/30/07 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 36 47 56 58 51 48 48 47 42 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 33 36 47 56 58 51 48 48 47 42 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 29 32 33 31 30 28 29 32 37 SHEAR (KTS) 7 11 15 19 25 43 61 67 64 39 35 28 23 SHEAR DIR 295 286 258 236 218 235 224 218 210 213 234 267 265 SST (C) 27.1 26.9 26.2 24.9 23.3 18.6 17.5 16.1 15.0 13.2 15.6 17.2 14.6 POT. INT. (KT) 123 122 115 104 94 77 76 73 71 69 72 75 71 ADJ. POT. INT. 100 100 95 87 81 72 71 69 67 66 68 70 68 200 MB T (C) -55.0 -54.8 -54.5 -54.8 -54.5 -54.3 -52.7 -52.7 -53.0 -55.0 -55.0 -55.9 -57.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 5 5 5 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 48 51 51 52 48 54 47 40 36 38 45 50 50 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 7 7 7 12 18 20 15 15 16 17 17 850 MB ENV VOR 12 30 39 40 60 85 90 84 65 36 45 57 45 200 MB DIV 45 29 30 43 68 84 46 39 20 3 68 73 34 LAND (KM) 510 466 408 340 285 291 175 230 63 363 686 1068 1473 LAT (DEG N) 36.2 36.9 37.6 38.4 39.2 41.1 43.2 45.0 46.3 47.3 48.2 49.3 51.0 LONG(DEG W) 70.0 70.1 70.2 69.9 69.6 67.0 62.3 57.3 52.5 48.0 43.6 38.4 32.8 STM SPEED (KT) 5 7 8 8 11 17 20 19 17 16 17 19 19 HEAT CONTENT 12 9 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 3 CX,CY: 0/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 565 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 25.3 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 27.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -1. 2. 4. 4. 6. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR 2. 4. 7. 10. 15. 17. 14. 11. 8. 8. 6. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -12. -15. -19. -22. -25. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 3. 8. 10. 5. 6. 6. 7. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 4. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 11. 22. 32. 33. 27. 24. 24. 23. 20. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 8. 11. 22. 31. 33. 26. 23. 23. 22. 17. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL962007 INVEST 08/30/07 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.4 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 67.4 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 21.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.3 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 Scaled RI index= 2.9 Prob of RI= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 3.2 Prob of RI= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962007 INVEST 08/30/07 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY