* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * GIL EP102007 08/30/07 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 39 39 40 40 41 41 41 38 38 35 33 31 V (KT) LAND 40 39 39 40 40 41 41 41 38 38 35 33 31 V (KT) LGE mod 40 40 40 39 39 40 41 43 44 43 40 36 33 SHEAR (KTS) 12 16 14 12 9 6 7 10 9 15 13 19 16 SHEAR DIR 66 74 93 90 81 93 126 146 142 169 185 181 208 SST (C) 27.2 27.1 27.1 27.1 27.2 27.1 26.6 26.0 25.4 24.7 24.3 24.1 24.1 POT. INT. (KT) 136 135 135 135 136 135 130 123 117 110 106 104 104 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.1 -52.3 -52.5 -52.5 -52.5 -53.0 -52.5 -52.6 -52.6 -52.7 -52.6 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 5 5 4 5 5 4 3 3 4 700-500 MB RH 75 70 72 69 65 61 59 55 51 51 47 45 43 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 11 11 11 11 10 8 8 6 6 5 5 3 850 MB ENV VOR 82 77 83 78 74 71 55 52 34 33 13 13 6 200 MB DIV 17 3 28 10 -10 -17 -17 0 -18 -22 -15 -17 -8 LAND (KM) 576 664 748 826 911 1083 1275 1437 1572 1738 1936 2122 1945 LAT (DEG N) 19.2 19.1 19.0 18.9 18.7 18.6 18.6 18.6 18.7 19.0 19.3 19.7 20.1 LONG(DEG W) 113.9 115.0 116.0 117.1 118.2 120.4 122.7 124.9 126.8 129.1 131.6 133.9 136.2 STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 10 11 10 11 10 10 10 11 11 11 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 636 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 24.5 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 7. 8. 9. 8. 7. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -9. -9. -11. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 2. 5. 5. 5. 2. 0. -4. -6. -9. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -2. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -2. -2. -5. -7. -9. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP102007 GIL 08/30/07 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.5 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.6 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.4 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.8 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 40.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.5 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 Scaled RI index= 2.6 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 2.9 Prob of RI= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102007 GIL 08/30/07 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY