* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP952007 08/30/07 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 39 43 49 63 77 90 101 104 109 107 98 V (KT) LAND 30 34 39 43 49 63 77 86 90 94 99 97 88 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 34 36 38 42 48 54 60 68 72 70 62 SHEAR (KTS) 16 18 19 20 16 14 5 4 11 12 5 9 9 SHEAR DIR 63 59 47 48 49 32 350 290 263 239 210 227 229 SST (C) 29.6 29.6 29.8 29.9 30.1 30.1 29.9 29.5 28.9 28.2 26.8 24.7 23.5 POT. INT. (KT) 160 160 162 163 166 165 164 160 154 147 133 111 98 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -52.5 -53.1 -53.5 -52.8 -52.7 -52.5 -52.4 -52.2 -52.1 -51.7 -51.7 -51.5 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 9 10 9 11 10 11 9 7 3 2 700-500 MB RH 83 81 83 81 82 84 84 86 82 77 71 65 65 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 6 7 7 8 11 13 16 20 22 24 26 24 850 MB ENV VOR 32 23 21 22 18 36 33 61 60 83 93 86 103 200 MB DIV 75 69 70 79 63 85 67 78 15 46 72 31 49 LAND (KM) 189 142 98 90 83 60 11 4 72 213 75 176 407 LAT (DEG N) 14.1 14.7 15.2 15.6 16.0 16.9 17.9 19.0 20.4 21.6 22.8 23.5 23.6 LONG(DEG W) 97.0 97.7 98.4 99.2 99.9 101.4 102.8 104.4 106.4 108.4 110.8 113.3 116.1 STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 9 8 8 8 9 10 11 12 13 12 13 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 7 CX,CY: -4/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 659 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 22.9 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 5. 12. 19. 26. 32. 34. 34. 33. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. 8. 7. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 9. 13. 20. 21. 26. 26. 21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 11. 16. 29. 43. 57. 69. 73. 78. 76. 66. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 9. 13. 19. 33. 47. 60. 71. 74. 79. 77. 68. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP952007 INVEST 08/30/07 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.8 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 71.2 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.4 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 86.0 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 84.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.9 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Scaled RI index= 4.2 Prob of RI= 34% is 2.6 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 4.2 Prob of RI= 38% is 2.9 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952007 INVEST 08/30/07 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY