* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED *
* INVEST AL942007 08/31/07 00 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 31 35 43 53 61 68 72 73 74 73
V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 31 35 43 53 61 68 72 73 74 73
V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 31 38 45 55 65 72 73 70 65
SHEAR (KTS) 2 4 5 6 1 7 2 13 9 26 26 31 28
SHEAR DIR 90 21 19 1 99 358 324 347 309 315 298 314 303
SST (C) 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.7 28.9 29.0 28.8 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.8 28.8
POT. INT. (KT) 144 146 145 149 152 153 150 147 147 147 146 149 148
ADJ. POT. INT. 147 150 149 152 155 156 150 146 145 144 141 142 141
200 MB T (C) -53.8 -54.0 -54.2 -54.1 -54.0 -54.3 -54.1 -54.4 -54.2 -54.6 -54.4 -54.8 -54.6
TH_E DEV (C) 12 11 11 11 11 10 11 10 12 11 12 11 13
700-500 MB RH 54 57 57 57 56 57 55 52 48 50 48 48 50
GFS VTEX (KT) 7 8 8 7 6 6 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 10 11 8 6 -1 8 16 26 30 25 8 7 -4
200 MB DIV -23 -1 7 3 7 9 -15 -7 -7 2 -13 13 8
LAND (KM) 630 578 476 355 278 344 376 287 192 169 100 92 221
LAT (DEG N) 11.4 11.7 12.0 12.5 12.9 13.8 14.7 15.5 16.0 16.5 16.9 17.2 17.6
LONG(DEG W) 53.9 55.4 56.8 58.2 59.6 62.4 65.1 67.9 70.7 73.5 76.1 78.3 80.3
STM SPEED (KT) 14 15 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 13 12 10 10
HEAT CONTENT 46 47 57 60 74 63 63 69 57 87 61 92 91
FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 1
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 580 (MEAN=625)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 27.6 (MEAN=20.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=69.0)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 12. 19. 24. 29. 33. 36. 38.
VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 12. 13. 12. 9. 5. 0. -3.
PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2.
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SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 19. 28. 37. 44. 47. 49. 49. 50.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2.
GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -2.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 6. 10. 18. 28. 36. 43. 47. 48. 49. 48.
** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL942007 INVEST 08/31/07 00 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.8 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8
D200 (10**7s-1) : -1.4 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.6 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.9
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 20.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.6 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3
Scaled RI index= 3.4 Prob of RI= 8% is 0.7 times the sample mean(12%)
Discrim RI index= 4.1 Prob of RI= 24% is 2.0 times the sample mean(12%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942007 INVEST 08/31/07 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY