* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL962007 08/31/07 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 36 44 46 46 41 39 38 35 27 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 33 36 44 46 46 41 39 38 35 27 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 28 29 29 28 26 25 26 29 33 SHEAR (KTS) 15 21 22 29 40 53 67 77 63 45 40 39 47 SHEAR DIR 272 254 232 212 225 212 205 198 198 198 210 238 265 SST (C) 26.6 25.8 24.4 22.5 20.4 17.2 17.4 15.3 13.0 14.8 12.3 13.4 12.4 POT. INT. (KT) 119 111 100 89 82 76 77 74 71 74 72 72 71 ADJ. POT. INT. 98 92 84 78 74 71 72 70 69 71 69 70 69 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.2 -54.4 -54.2 -54.1 -53.6 -51.9 -51.8 -52.1 -51.6 -52.3 -53.6 -53.9 TH_E DEV (C) 6 4 3 4 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 49 52 53 50 50 47 41 34 28 40 47 51 52 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 9 8 7 8 8 9 7 9 8 7 7 850 MB ENV VOR 46 52 65 79 101 104 98 121 122 82 15 -35 -46 200 MB DIV 28 30 52 69 79 76 60 55 25 30 41 60 39 LAND (KM) 419 359 278 242 186 168 219 83 495 1029 1414 983 590 LAT (DEG N) 37.2 38.0 38.7 39.6 40.4 42.1 44.0 46.0 48.3 51.2 54.9 58.5 61.3 LONG(DEG W) 70.5 70.6 70.7 69.9 69.0 64.7 59.0 52.7 46.2 39.2 31.8 23.6 14.0 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 11 14 21 24 25 26 28 29 28 27 HEAT CONTENT 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 11 CX,CY: -3/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 690 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 22.9 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -2. -3. -4. -6. -5. -2. 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR 2. 5. 8. 12. 17. 18. 14. 11. 8. 9. 7. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -9. -13. -17. -21. -24. -27. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 6. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 12. 19. 21. 21. 17. 15. 14. 12. 6. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 8. 11. 19. 21. 21. 16. 14. 13. 10. 2. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL962007 INVEST 08/31/07 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.2 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 51.6 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 60.1 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 16.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.9 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 Scaled RI index= 2.6 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 2.9 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962007 INVEST 08/31/07 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY