* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * GIL EP102007 08/31/07 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 40 40 41 42 44 47 47 48 47 44 42 41 V (KT) LAND 40 40 40 41 42 44 47 47 48 47 44 42 41 V (KT) LGE mod 40 40 40 40 40 40 42 44 44 42 39 37 34 SHEAR (KTS) 14 14 10 7 3 2 2 3 4 7 5 2 8 SHEAR DIR 73 88 93 82 91 79 12 71 79 36 87 167 186 SST (C) 27.2 27.1 27.1 27.1 27.1 27.0 26.3 25.4 24.4 23.9 23.9 23.9 24.1 POT. INT. (KT) 136 135 135 135 135 134 127 118 107 101 101 101 104 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.3 -52.5 -52.5 -52.1 -52.5 -52.4 -52.5 -52.4 -52.4 -52.6 -52.7 -52.7 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 4 4 5 4 3 3 3 3 3 4 700-500 MB RH 71 73 71 67 64 63 61 58 56 56 52 51 45 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 11 12 12 12 12 12 11 11 10 9 8 7 850 MB ENV VOR 76 84 83 81 78 66 63 50 57 45 32 20 10 200 MB DIV 6 28 0 -13 -22 -9 -5 0 -11 0 -11 2 15 LAND (KM) 652 738 803 874 952 1125 1301 1449 1599 1753 1910 2097 1966 LAT (DEG N) 19.1 19.0 18.9 18.9 18.8 18.7 18.9 19.2 19.7 20.0 19.9 20.0 20.0 LONG(DEG W) 114.8 115.8 116.8 117.9 118.9 121.0 123.3 125.7 128.0 130.0 131.7 133.8 136.0 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 10 10 10 10 11 11 10 9 9 10 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 585 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 27.1 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 7. 5. 4. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 12. 13. 13. 10. 6. 4. 3. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 7. 8. 7. 4. 2. 1. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP102007 GIL 08/31/07 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.7 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : -0.2 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.0 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.4 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 45.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.1 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 Scaled RI index= 2.8 Prob of RI= 5% is 0.4 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 2.9 Prob of RI= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102007 GIL 08/31/07 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY