* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * ELEVEN EP112007 08/31/07 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 40 44 53 63 71 76 77 78 79 78 V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 40 44 53 63 71 76 77 78 79 78 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 31 31 32 35 40 46 54 62 67 69 70 SHEAR (KTS) 21 21 22 18 16 10 11 5 4 10 2 0 9 SHEAR DIR 57 49 51 39 46 44 12 301 66 247 321 66 136 SST (C) 29.6 29.7 29.9 30.0 30.1 30.1 29.8 29.5 29.0 28.4 27.8 27.1 26.2 POT. INT. (KT) 160 161 163 164 165 165 162 159 154 147 141 134 125 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -53.0 -53.5 -52.8 -52.3 -53.5 -52.3 -53.1 -51.5 -52.1 -51.4 -51.9 -51.4 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 10 11 10 12 9 10 8 9 7 7 700-500 MB RH 81 82 84 84 84 85 83 86 82 77 74 68 58 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 5 5 6 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 22 19 16 13 13 21 25 37 49 41 40 41 40 200 MB DIV 66 57 67 58 89 45 98 39 97 0 44 -21 36 LAND (KM) 145 113 95 75 56 46 35 58 105 203 289 202 207 LAT (DEG N) 14.6 15.0 15.4 15.9 16.4 17.2 17.8 18.6 19.4 20.0 20.5 21.1 21.9 LONG(DEG W) 97.6 98.2 98.8 99.5 100.2 101.6 103.1 104.7 106.2 107.6 108.9 110.3 111.7 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 9 7 7 7 7 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 7 CX,CY: -4/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 648 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 5. 12. 19. 26. 31. 34. 35. 34. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 700-500 MB RH 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. 7. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 11. 19. 30. 38. 44. 46. 47. 47. 46. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 6. 10. 14. 23. 33. 41. 46. 47. 48. 49. 48. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP112007 ELEVEN 08/31/07 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.6 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 67.4 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.7 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 85.8 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 76.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.0 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Scaled RI index= 4.0 Prob of RI= 27% is 2.1 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 4.0 Prob of RI= 30% is 2.3 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112007 ELEVEN 08/31/07 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY