* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED *
* INVEST AL942007 08/31/07 06 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 34 38 47 57 66 74 79 83 86 87
V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 34 38 47 57 66 74 79 83 86 87
V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 28 30 32 39 47 57 69 80 88 89 87
SHEAR (KTS) 1 2 5 1 7 9 5 8 9 10 20 17 17
SHEAR DIR 44 357 9 81 28 57 37 349 327 316 298 290 316
SST (C) 28.6 28.6 28.8 29.0 29.0 28.8 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.7 29.0 29.2
POT. INT. (KT) 147 148 151 154 154 151 148 148 148 149 148 152 155
ADJ. POT. INT. 152 157 159 161 161 156 153 151 150 149 146 147 148
200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.4 -54.2 -54.2 -54.4 -54.1 -54.1 -54.3 -54.0 -53.9 -54.1 -54.3 -54.3
TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 11 9 12 9 12 11 13 12 13 11
700-500 MB RH 58 58 58 59 62 56 59 52 54 54 54 59 61
GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 6 6 9 5 7 22 31 37 37 28 11 5 2
200 MB DIV -6 10 16 2 14 19 -3 12 3 18 1 23 1
LAND (KM) 563 447 274 177 211 331 276 285 257 264 170 82 141
LAT (DEG N) 11.4 11.7 12.0 12.3 12.6 13.5 14.3 15.0 15.5 15.9 16.2 16.6 17.0
LONG(DEG W) 55.2 57.0 58.8 60.5 62.1 65.4 68.8 72.3 75.9 79.2 82.2 84.6 86.7
STM SPEED (KT) 15 18 17 16 17 17 17 17 17 15 13 11 10
HEAT CONTENT 48 59 72 76 55 51 51 73 50 91 50 77 80
FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 0
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 535 (MEAN=625)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=20.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=69.0)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 12. 19. 24. 30. 34. 37. 39.
VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 5. 6. 9. 11. 13. 14. 13. 11. 9. 7.
PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2.
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SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 11. 20. 31. 41. 50. 56. 60. 62. 64.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2.
GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0.
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TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2.
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TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 6. 9. 13. 22. 32. 41. 49. 54. 58. 61. 62.
** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL942007 INVEST 08/31/07 06 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.2 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8
D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.2 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.1 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 2.0
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 73.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.0 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4
Scaled RI index= 4.3 Prob of RI= 29% is 2.4 times the sample mean(12%)
Discrim RI index= 4.8 Prob of RI= 44% is 3.6 times the sample mean(12%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942007 INVEST 08/31/07 06 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY