* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL962007 08/31/07 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 29 32 35 41 50 49 43 38 42 41 33 V (KT) LAND 25 26 29 32 35 41 50 49 43 38 42 41 33 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 26 27 27 27 25 23 22 24 27 32 SHEAR (KTS) 22 18 24 33 32 54 65 67 47 33 26 24 36 SHEAR DIR 272 240 219 229 221 203 210 206 196 203 232 239 239 SST (C) 26.0 24.9 23.6 21.6 19.6 18.7 17.2 15.0 13.0 16.3 16.8 13.9 11.9 POT. INT. (KT) 113 103 95 86 80 79 76 72 69 72 71 68 67 ADJ. POT. INT. 93 86 82 77 74 74 71 68 66 67 66 65 65 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.4 -54.2 -53.9 -53.7 -52.1 -52.1 -52.0 -53.9 -54.0 -55.9 -56.5 -57.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 3 5 4 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 53 54 51 49 48 41 37 37 34 37 49 60 60 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 8 8 7 8 8 19 20 17 14 19 18 15 850 MB ENV VOR 51 68 80 94 109 127 118 125 101 36 11 22 32 200 MB DIV 20 56 76 75 77 60 47 55 13 35 39 28 23 LAND (KM) 352 304 238 222 244 239 283 126 434 748 968 1149 1378 LAT (DEG N) 37.7 38.4 39.1 39.9 40.7 42.5 44.3 46.1 47.6 48.8 49.9 51.7 54.3 LONG(DEG W) 71.0 70.9 70.7 69.3 67.8 62.6 57.2 51.7 47.0 42.8 39.8 37.6 35.0 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 10 14 18 22 21 20 17 13 11 13 15 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 7 CX,CY: -1/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 830 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 24.1 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -6. -3. 0. 2. 3. 4. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR 2. 5. 9. 12. 18. 19. 15. 11. 8. 9. 7. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 8. 10. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -14. -17. -21. -24. -27. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 8. 9. 6. 4. 8. 7. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 7. 10. 16. 25. 25. 19. 14. 19. 17. 11. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 4. 7. 10. 16. 25. 24. 18. 13. 18. 16. 8. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL962007 INVEST 08/31/07 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.9 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 60.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 57.2 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 20.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.1 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 Scaled RI index= 2.6 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 2.9 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962007 INVEST 08/31/07 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY