* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * GIL EP102007 08/31/07 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 40 41 42 43 45 48 47 46 46 45 44 45 V (KT) LAND 40 40 41 42 43 45 48 47 46 46 45 44 45 V (KT) LGE mod 40 40 40 40 40 41 43 44 43 41 38 36 34 SHEAR (KTS) 12 9 6 4 6 1 1 6 3 2 5 2 6 SHEAR DIR 79 93 63 30 56 233 108 96 142 79 185 235 202 SST (C) 27.1 27.1 27.1 27.1 27.0 26.6 25.6 24.8 24.0 23.6 23.4 23.5 24.0 POT. INT. (KT) 134 135 135 135 134 130 119 111 102 98 96 97 102 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.3 -52.0 -51.6 -51.7 -52.3 -52.2 -52.5 -52.4 -52.7 -52.6 -52.7 -52.7 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 4 5 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 4 700-500 MB RH 73 70 68 63 63 64 61 57 57 58 56 51 47 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 14 13 13 12 11 12 11 11 10 10 9 10 850 MB ENV VOR 96 93 90 83 78 63 64 49 56 45 50 36 32 200 MB DIV 31 5 -10 -6 -3 -20 14 2 -9 -22 -3 -10 -5 LAND (KM) 738 798 866 941 1021 1198 1321 1468 1622 1779 1940 2091 1914 LAT (DEG N) 19.0 19.0 18.9 18.9 18.9 19.0 19.5 19.8 20.0 20.3 20.7 20.6 20.4 LONG(DEG W) 115.8 116.8 117.8 118.9 119.9 122.1 124.3 126.5 128.5 130.5 132.5 134.5 136.5 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 10 10 10 10 11 10 10 9 9 9 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 612 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 25.4 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 4. 3. 1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 12. 12. 10. 9. 6. 5. 6. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -2. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 7. 6. 6. 5. 4. 5. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP102007 GIL 08/31/07 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.4 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.4 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.6 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.0 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 42.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.4 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 Scaled RI index= 2.9 Prob of RI= 7% is 0.5 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 3.1 Prob of RI= 8% is 0.6 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102007 GIL 08/31/07 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY