* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * ELEVEN EP112007 08/31/07 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 37 42 46 58 70 80 84 89 85 86 79 V (KT) LAND 30 33 37 42 46 58 70 80 84 89 85 86 79 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 31 33 34 38 45 52 61 67 69 68 64 SHEAR (KTS) 17 19 16 17 16 10 4 7 3 9 12 9 13 SHEAR DIR 56 60 50 45 54 40 38 57 227 212 252 269 238 SST (C) 29.8 29.9 30.1 30.1 30.1 29.9 29.5 29.1 28.5 27.7 27.0 26.3 25.7 POT. INT. (KT) 162 163 165 166 165 163 159 155 149 140 132 125 118 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.5 -53.0 -52.3 -52.9 -52.8 -52.8 -52.0 -52.2 -52.0 -51.8 -51.9 -52.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 10 11 10 11 10 10 9 8 7 7 5 700-500 MB RH 83 85 84 84 86 82 83 80 77 71 63 59 52 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 5 5 6 5 6 7 9 9 12 10 12 9 850 MB ENV VOR 20 20 13 15 27 20 26 45 37 35 33 36 15 200 MB DIV 59 63 65 100 82 66 69 75 17 28 3 13 11 LAND (KM) 130 111 92 74 64 49 63 92 192 255 160 162 161 LAT (DEG N) 15.1 15.6 16.0 16.5 17.0 17.6 18.4 19.2 20.0 20.8 21.5 22.2 23.0 LONG(DEG W) 98.9 99.5 100.1 100.9 101.6 103.0 104.4 105.9 107.5 109.0 110.4 111.4 112.1 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 8 9 8 8 8 8 9 8 7 5 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 618 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 22.5 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 3. 5. 12. 19. 26. 31. 33. 33. 32. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 700-500 MB RH 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. 7. 6. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 6. 11. 9. 11. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 13. 25. 37. 47. 53. 58. 54. 55. 47. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 7. 12. 16. 28. 40. 50. 54. 59. 55. 56. 49. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP112007 ELEVEN 08/31/07 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.2 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 73.8 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 134.3 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 86.6 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 79.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.5 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Scaled RI index= 4.1 Prob of RI= 33% is 2.5 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 4.1 Prob of RI= 34% is 2.6 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112007 ELEVEN 08/31/07 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY