* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL942007 08/31/07 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 38 42 46 54 62 69 76 81 86 90 92 V (KT) LAND 30 34 38 42 46 54 62 69 76 81 70 42 32 V (KT) LGE mod 30 33 36 39 43 51 60 68 78 87 80 45 33 SHEAR (KTS) 6 4 6 7 12 9 13 10 8 7 7 8 11 SHEAR DIR 349 45 94 55 47 82 33 68 9 311 324 287 347 SST (C) 28.7 28.9 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.8 28.8 28.9 29.5 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 149 152 154 154 152 149 148 148 151 151 152 162 163 ADJ. POT. INT. 155 159 161 161 159 155 152 152 156 154 154 164 163 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.2 -54.3 -54.5 -54.5 -53.9 -54.2 -53.9 -54.3 -53.7 -54.3 -53.9 -54.7 TH_E DEV (C) 11 12 11 9 9 11 9 12 10 13 10 11 9 700-500 MB RH 57 57 60 60 62 62 61 57 58 61 66 68 72 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 7 6 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 8 10 2 2 12 32 41 53 55 37 27 26 12 200 MB DIV 9 31 10 12 13 1 14 10 10 15 17 42 38 LAND (KM) 428 267 132 149 188 256 167 263 366 279 -47 -66 -92 LAT (DEG N) 11.3 11.5 11.7 12.1 12.4 12.9 13.6 14.1 14.4 14.7 14.9 15.1 15.4 LONG(DEG W) 57.1 58.7 60.2 61.8 63.4 66.8 70.1 73.5 77.1 80.6 83.9 86.9 89.6 STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 15 16 16 17 16 17 17 16 15 14 13 HEAT CONTENT 59 71 80 58 40 34 64 82 54 84 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 17 CX,CY: -16/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 522 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 19. 23. 28. 32. 35. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 4. 6. 6. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 15. 23. 31. 39. 47. 54. 58. 63. 65. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 8. 12. 16. 24. 32. 39. 46. 51. 56. 60. 62. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL942007 INVEST 08/31/07 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.1 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.8 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 2.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 82.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.0 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 Scaled RI index= 4.5 Prob of RI= 32% is 2.6 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 4.9 Prob of RI= 46% is 3.8 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942007 INVEST 08/31/07 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY