* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL962007 08/31/07 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 41 47 55 57 54 47 44 43 37 28 V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 41 47 55 53 50 43 40 39 33 24 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 33 34 34 33 31 29 27 26 27 DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 21 28 40 44 59 65 75 60 37 28 16 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 259 241 238 245 230 206 199 192 177 210 206 N/A N/A SST (C) 25.5 23.6 21.4 18.6 17.2 15.6 12.8 13.6 14.3 13.4 14.1 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 108 96 86 78 77 74 70 71 71 70 71 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 90 83 77 73 72 71 68 68 68 67 68 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -54.4 -54.4 -54.4 -53.6 -52.0 -52.4 -52.3 -52.3 -54.9 -56.2 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 4 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 55 52 52 52 49 40 37 30 37 41 46 N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 7 8 10 12 15 17 20 19 16 18 19 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 66 73 89 97 114 107 131 118 90 -38 -70 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 39 50 71 78 72 68 62 33 41 20 46 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 346 305 252 262 167 165 84 561 1031 1477 1081 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 38.1 39.1 40.0 41.2 42.4 45.7 48.2 50.1 51.6 52.5 53.8 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 70.5 69.5 68.4 66.3 64.1 57.8 51.9 45.6 39.3 33.0 26.5 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 13 16 20 24 26 23 22 20 20 21 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 40/ 5 CX,CY: 3/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 776 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 27.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -8. -6. -4. -3. -2. -1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR 2. 5. 9. 13. 19. 20. 15. 12. 10. 11. 8. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 5. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -14. -18. -22. -25. -28. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 8. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 12. 18. 25. 28. 25. 18. 15. 14. 9. 1. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 6. 11. 17. 25. 27. 24. 17. 14. 13. 7. -2. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL962007 INVEST 08/31/07 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 38.5 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 62.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 49.3 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 25.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.0 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 Scaled RI index= 2.3 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 2.6 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962007 INVEST 08/31/07 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY