* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * GIL EP102007 08/31/07 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 35 35 36 37 38 35 34 33 31 30 32 V (KT) LAND 35 35 35 35 36 37 38 35 34 33 31 30 32 V (KT) LGE mod 35 33 32 32 31 31 32 31 30 29 26 24 23 SHEAR (KTS) 10 7 5 7 4 3 3 4 7 12 11 10 13 SHEAR DIR 68 54 39 73 111 154 152 168 191 187 206 187 233 SST (C) 26.9 26.9 26.9 26.8 26.6 25.9 24.8 23.8 23.4 23.4 23.4 23.7 24.0 POT. INT. (KT) 133 133 133 132 130 122 111 100 96 96 96 99 102 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.1 -51.8 -51.8 -52.2 -52.3 -52.7 -52.6 -52.7 -52.7 -52.7 -52.8 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 700-500 MB RH 70 69 63 65 66 62 60 56 61 59 55 47 48 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 12 11 11 11 10 10 9 8 8 7 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR 96 92 87 85 77 67 49 49 47 49 34 16 11 200 MB DIV 7 -8 -17 4 -15 -12 -3 0 -11 -7 -9 6 -15 LAND (KM) 791 856 929 1011 1099 1243 1344 1489 1667 1848 2020 2028 1810 LAT (DEG N) 19.1 19.1 19.1 19.2 19.2 19.5 20.2 20.6 20.7 20.7 20.6 20.6 20.7 LONG(DEG W) 116.9 117.9 118.9 120.0 121.1 123.2 125.3 127.4 129.5 131.5 133.4 135.4 137.5 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 9 9 10 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 582 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 16.3 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 1. 0. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 10. 11. 10. 9. 9. 8. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -5. -6. -5. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -3. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP102007 GIL 08/31/07 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.5 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : -5.8 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 97.0 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.2 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 29.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.3 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Scaled RI index= 2.9 Prob of RI= 8% is 0.6 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 3.4 Prob of RI= 15% is 1.1 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102007 GIL 08/31/07 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY