* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT MISSING * * HENRIETTE EP112007 08/31/07 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 42 47 50 60 69 76 79 80 79 76 72 V (KT) LAND 35 38 42 47 50 60 69 76 79 80 79 76 72 V (KT) LGE mod 35 37 40 42 45 51 58 65 72 76 75 71 64 SHEAR (KTS) 19 16 21 16 9 13 4 8 2 3 7 10 7 SHEAR DIR 66 58 49 54 53 54 97 71 245 275 246 258 264 SST (C) 29.9 30.0 30.1 30.0 29.9 29.6 29.2 28.7 28.1 27.4 26.5 25.7 25.0 POT. INT. (KT) 164 165 166 165 164 160 156 150 144 137 128 118 110 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -52.8 -52.3 -53.0 -53.5 -52.0 -52.9 -52.2 -52.6 -51.8 -52.2 -51.9 -52.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 10 11 10 9 12 9 10 8 8 6 7 5 700-500 MB RH 86 85 82 85 84 83 81 78 73 70 63 55 51 GFS VTEX (KT) 4 4 5 5 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 19 15 16 28 22 29 26 30 33 44 28 19 -3 200 MB DIV 54 50 87 78 56 100 39 75 3 19 -8 -4 -3 LAND (KM) 125 119 114 118 89 98 138 219 312 245 143 153 132 LAT (DEG N) 15.5 15.9 16.3 16.8 17.2 18.1 18.6 19.1 19.7 20.7 22.1 23.1 23.7 LONG(DEG W) 99.7 100.5 101.3 102.1 102.9 104.5 106.0 107.3 108.6 109.8 111.1 112.1 112.8 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 9 8 7 7 7 9 8 6 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 571 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 6. 12. 18. 24. 28. 29. 28. 27. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 8. 8. 7. 6. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 12. 15. 25. 34. 41. 44. 45. 44. 41. 37. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 7. 12. 15. 25. 34. 41. 44. 45. 44. 41. 37. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP112007 HENRIETTE 08/31/07 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.2 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 65.0 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.4 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 86.6 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C:9999.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.9 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Scaled RI index= 999.0 Prob of RI= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index=999.0 Prob of RI= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112007 HENRIETTE 08/31/07 12 UTC ## ## ERR=3, IR & SHIPS DATA > 12h APART