* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED *
* SIX AL062007 08/31/07 18 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 38 43 47 56 64 73 79 85 90 94 97
V (KT) LAND 30 34 38 43 47 56 64 73 79 85 61 38 31
V (KT) LGE mod 30 33 36 39 43 51 61 71 82 92 76 42 32
SHEAR (KTS) 3 4 6 12 9 8 12 7 7 7 3 6 9
SHEAR DIR 69 147 58 47 62 31 35 13 351 317 321 318 349
SST (C) 28.8 28.9 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.8 29.1 29.6 29.7
POT. INT. (KT) 150 153 154 153 151 149 148 147 149 151 155 163 164
ADJ. POT. INT. 155 160 164 162 159 155 152 150 150 153 157 161 162
200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.1 -54.4 -54.5 -54.1 -54.0 -54.0 -54.0 -53.9 -53.8 -54.2 -54.3 -54.3
TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 10 9 12 10 11 10 12 11 11 9 10
700-500 MB RH 54 53 59 59 58 56 57 58 56 59 63 67 69
GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 6 7 7 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 14 5 8 17 26 41 55 50 50 31 42 33 29
200 MB DIV 35 5 3 2 10 25 30 18 34 20 39 46 34
LAND (KM) 349 192 147 188 247 202 135 361 350 182 -97 -87 -134
LAT (DEG N) 11.6 11.9 12.1 12.4 12.7 13.3 13.7 14.3 14.7 15.0 15.0 15.0 15.0
LONG(DEG W) 57.9 59.6 61.3 63.2 65.0 68.5 71.9 75.2 78.3 81.5 84.9 87.6 89.8
STM SPEED (KT) 14 17 18 18 18 17 17 16 15 16 15 12 11
HEAT CONTENT 64 79 70 45 44 50 67 55 79 74 9999 9999 9999
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 1
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 564 (MEAN=625)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 18.6 (MEAN=20.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=69.0)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 19. 23. 28. 32. 35. 37.
VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 9. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11.
PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2.
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SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 10. 15. 25. 33. 43. 51. 57. 63. 67. 69.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2.
GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1.
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TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2.
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TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 8. 13. 17. 26. 34. 43. 49. 55. 60. 64. 67.
** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL062007 SIX 08/31/07 18 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.1 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7
D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.1 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 2.0
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 89.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.6 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5
Scaled RI index= 4.6 Prob of RI= 35% is 2.9 times the sample mean(12%)
Discrim RI index= 5.0 Prob of RI= 50% is 4.1 times the sample mean(12%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062007 SIX 08/31/07 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY