* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES INPUT INCLUDED *
* GIL EP102007 08/31/07 18 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 36 37 37 39 38 38 36 35 32 32 32
V (KT) LAND 35 35 36 37 37 39 38 38 36 35 32 32 32
V (KT) LGE mod 35 35 35 36 36 36 36 36 34 32 30 28 25
SHEAR (KTS) 8 7 7 5 3 1 4 5 3 8 9 15 12
SHEAR DIR 78 72 68 83 79 68 87 157 153 205 229 236 235
SST (C) 27.1 27.1 27.0 26.7 26.3 25.3 24.4 23.7 23.6 23.6 23.6 24.0 24.3
POT. INT. (KT) 135 135 134 131 127 116 107 100 99 98 98 103 105
200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.0 -52.0 -52.4 -52.6 -52.4 -52.6 -52.6 -52.9 -52.8 -52.7 -52.7 -52.8
TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 5 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4
700-500 MB RH 67 64 66 66 64 63 59 56 54 56 53 50 49
GFS VTEX (KT) 11 10 9 9 9 8 7 8 7 6 4 4 4
850 MB ENV VOR 93 91 91 81 69 66 45 48 40 42 17 11 -7
200 MB DIV -5 -16 -4 -13 -27 0 4 -15 -5 -8 -10 -13 -20
LAND (KM) 889 960 1037 1122 1212 1320 1472 1655 1861 2045 2028 1820 1601
LAT (DEG N) 18.8 18.9 18.9 19.1 19.2 19.8 20.1 20.3 20.3 20.4 20.7 20.7 20.5
LONG(DEG W) 118.0 119.1 120.1 121.3 122.4 124.6 126.8 129.1 131.4 133.5 135.4 137.4 139.5
STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 11 11 11 11 11 10 9 9 10 9
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0
T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 569 (MEAN=582)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 20.8 (MEAN=18.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.9)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1.
VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 11. 12. 12. 11. 10. 9.
PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10.
700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -4. -5. -6. -9. -8. -8.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5.
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SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 5. 3. 1. -3. -4. -4.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0.
GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -1. 0. -1. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 3. 3. 1. 0. -3. -3. -3.
** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP102007 GIL 08/31/07 18 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.1 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6
D200 (10**7s-1) : -13.0 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 97.4 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.0 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 40.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.8 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8
Scaled RI index= 3.0 Prob of RI= 9% is 0.7 times the sample mean(13%)
Discrim RI index= 3.3 Prob of RI= 14% is 1.1 times the sample mean(13%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102007 GIL 08/31/07 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY