* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * HENRIETTE EP112007 08/31/07 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 47 53 59 64 76 84 89 88 84 80 76 69 V (KT) LAND 40 47 53 59 64 76 84 89 88 84 80 76 69 V (KT) LGE mod 40 44 48 52 56 64 71 78 81 80 74 67 58 SHEAR (KTS) 14 20 21 15 10 8 4 3 8 14 20 23 21 SHEAR DIR 53 51 58 65 43 52 19 226 263 276 271 274 259 SST (C) 30.1 30.1 30.1 29.9 29.7 29.3 28.9 28.2 27.3 26.8 26.5 25.7 24.0 POT. INT. (KT) 166 165 166 164 162 157 153 146 136 130 127 120 102 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.2 -53.0 -53.5 -52.7 -52.5 -52.5 -52.4 -52.4 -52.5 -52.5 -52.6 -52.7 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 10 9 10 9 10 9 8 6 7 5 6 700-500 MB RH 85 84 85 83 83 82 78 76 70 67 61 56 55 GFS VTEX (KT) 4 5 4 4 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 23 17 27 25 28 25 37 41 53 47 31 19 -8 200 MB DIV 68 83 76 68 82 72 14 49 24 0 -1 -6 3 LAND (KM) 114 99 98 66 53 78 155 262 213 123 88 42 112 LAT (DEG N) 16.0 16.5 16.9 17.4 17.9 18.7 19.3 20.1 21.0 22.0 23.1 24.4 25.7 LONG(DEG W) 100.6 101.3 102.0 102.8 103.6 105.3 106.7 108.2 109.7 110.7 111.2 112.3 113.7 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 9 9 8 8 8 7 7 7 8 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 569 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 7. 12. 18. 22. 24. 24. 23. 22. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 4. 2. 0. -2. PERSISTENCE 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 7. 6. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 5. 9. 14. 19. 30. 38. 44. 45. 42. 38. 33. 27. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 3. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 6. 5. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 7. 13. 19. 24. 36. 44. 49. 48. 45. 40. 36. 29. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP112007 HENRIETTE 08/31/07 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.9 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 75.4 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.4 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 85.4 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.0 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 Scaled RI index= 4.8 Prob of RI= 60% is 4.6 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 4.8 Prob of RI= 68% is 5.2 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112007 HENRIETTE 08/31/07 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY