* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * SIX AL062007 09/01/07 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 39 44 48 58 66 76 83 89 94 98 100 V (KT) LAND 30 34 39 44 48 58 66 76 83 89 94 98 68 V (KT) LGE mod 30 33 36 39 43 52 63 75 86 96 102 108 77 SHEAR (KTS) 5 4 6 5 4 7 5 5 3 6 2 6 3 SHEAR DIR 191 60 28 90 132 21 112 43 155 12 225 344 293 SST (C) 28.9 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.8 28.9 29.2 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 152 154 154 152 151 148 148 147 148 149 151 156 162 ADJ. POT. INT. 156 159 160 159 157 154 153 149 147 145 146 154 160 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.4 -54.6 -54.1 -53.7 -53.8 -53.4 -53.6 -53.1 -53.7 -53.1 -53.7 -53.1 TH_E DEV (C) 12 10 10 12 11 9 11 10 12 10 11 9 12 700-500 MB RH 57 59 56 56 55 57 53 52 53 59 62 66 63 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 9 9 10 10 9 8 8 8 9 9 10 8 850 MB ENV VOR 5 7 13 23 33 42 41 39 28 26 26 24 25 200 MB DIV 19 9 -1 1 3 19 25 14 11 23 39 23 39 LAND (KM) 221 157 200 238 293 222 266 300 322 165 49 105 -124 LAT (DEG N) 11.9 12.2 12.5 12.9 13.2 13.9 14.6 15.1 15.4 15.8 16.2 16.7 17.2 LONG(DEG W) 59.3 60.8 62.3 64.0 65.6 69.1 72.9 76.4 79.4 81.9 84.0 86.5 89.4 STM SPEED (KT) 14 15 16 16 17 18 18 16 14 11 11 13 14 HEAT CONTENT 78 75 58 44 49 54 84 57 84 53 64 80 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 554 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 18. 23. 28. 31. 34. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 14. 15. 16. 16. 17. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. 0. -1. 0. -1. 0. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 12. 16. 26. 35. 46. 54. 61. 66. 70. 71. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 9. 14. 18. 28. 36. 46. 53. 59. 64. 68. 70. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL062007 SIX 09/01/07 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.9 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.2 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.1 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 68.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.0 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 Scaled RI index= 4.4 Prob of RI= 29% is 2.4 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 4.9 Prob of RI= 46% is 3.8 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062007 SIX 09/01/07 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY