* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * GIL EP102007 09/01/07 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 28 27 28 28 29 25 27 26 26 25 26 V (KT) LAND 30 29 28 27 28 28 29 25 27 26 26 25 26 V (KT) LGE mod 30 29 27 27 26 26 25 24 23 22 21 19 18 SHEAR (KTS) 8 9 7 7 5 3 3 3 5 8 9 12 12 SHEAR DIR 57 68 82 86 103 127 129 204 207 250 229 254 244 SST (C) 27.2 27.1 26.9 26.5 26.1 25.3 24.4 23.8 23.7 23.7 24.0 24.3 24.3 POT. INT. (KT) 136 135 133 129 125 116 107 101 100 100 103 105 105 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.1 -52.4 -52.5 -52.3 -52.4 -52.1 -52.2 -52.2 -52.2 -52.2 -52.2 -52.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 5 700-500 MB RH 65 64 64 63 63 57 59 58 58 54 49 48 44 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 10 10 9 9 8 9 7 7 6 6 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR 90 89 80 64 69 45 44 32 43 27 24 15 -8 200 MB DIV -16 -7 -20 -37 -19 11 -4 -13 -8 -13 -2 -9 -5 LAND (KM) 939 1017 1102 1195 1276 1388 1520 1703 1899 2094 1945 1736 1548 LAT (DEG N) 18.7 18.8 18.9 19.1 19.2 19.6 20.0 20.1 20.1 20.2 20.3 20.3 20.2 LONG(DEG W) 118.6 119.8 120.9 122.1 123.3 125.3 127.3 129.5 131.7 134.0 136.2 138.2 140.0 STM SPEED (KT) 9 11 11 11 10 10 10 10 11 10 10 9 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 574 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 22.2 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 27.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. 10. 9. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -2. -5. -4. -6. -7. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -2. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -1. 1. 0. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -5. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP102007 GIL 09/01/07 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.3 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : -19.8 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.6 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.0 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 23.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.2 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Scaled RI index= 2.7 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 3.1 Prob of RI= 8% is 0.6 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102007 GIL 09/01/07 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY