* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * HENRIETTE EP112007 09/01/07 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 45 50 55 61 71 77 78 75 69 63 58 52 V (KT) LAND 40 45 50 55 61 71 77 78 75 69 63 58 52 V (KT) LGE mod 40 43 45 49 52 60 67 70 68 63 56 49 42 SHEAR (KTS) 17 16 7 6 8 9 13 24 19 27 24 27 23 SHEAR DIR 63 63 62 352 38 325 289 289 288 284 282 277 270 SST (C) 30.1 30.0 29.8 29.6 29.4 29.0 28.3 27.5 26.8 26.0 25.4 24.6 23.6 POT. INT. (KT) 166 165 163 160 158 154 147 138 131 122 115 106 96 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.9 -53.4 -52.6 -51.7 -52.6 -51.9 -52.5 -51.9 -52.3 -52.1 -52.6 -52.3 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 9 10 12 9 10 7 9 7 9 6 7 700-500 MB RH 84 86 82 83 80 78 76 72 70 68 63 63 63 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 19 29 24 31 37 43 54 45 67 64 43 28 13 200 MB DIV 88 70 83 90 94 27 62 10 24 10 20 -2 24 LAND (KM) 82 72 36 49 49 108 229 219 141 155 98 91 174 LAT (DEG N) 16.8 17.4 17.9 18.4 18.8 19.5 20.3 21.0 21.8 22.8 23.9 24.7 25.1 LONG(DEG W) 101.6 102.5 103.3 104.1 104.9 106.3 107.9 109.4 110.7 111.8 112.4 113.2 114.0 STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 9 9 8 8 8 7 7 7 6 5 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 11 CX,CY: -8/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 509 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 15.4 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 12. 17. 20. 22. 21. 20. 18. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 2. 0. -4. -7. -10. -12. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 7. 7. 6. 6. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 12. 17. 26. 33. 34. 32. 27. 22. 16. 10. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 5. 10. 15. 21. 31. 37. 38. 35. 29. 23. 18. 12. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP112007 HENRIETTE 09/01/07 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.0 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 85.0 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.6 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 85.2 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 75.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.4 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Scaled RI index= 4.7 Prob of RI= 58% is 4.5 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 4.7 Prob of RI= 63% is 4.9 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112007 HENRIETTE 09/01/07 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY