* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * SIX AL062007 09/01/07 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 43 47 53 60 70 77 84 88 93 95 97 V (KT) LAND 35 39 43 47 53 60 70 77 84 88 93 95 52 V (KT) LGE mod 35 38 41 45 49 58 69 79 90 97 104 109 64 SHEAR (KTS) 6 8 6 5 5 12 5 8 5 4 4 2 7 SHEAR DIR 27 44 91 131 35 39 15 46 324 38 297 318 356 SST (C) 29.0 29.0 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.7 28.7 28.8 29.2 29.3 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 154 154 151 149 150 148 146 149 148 149 155 157 157 ADJ. POT. INT. 161 159 156 155 155 152 149 149 146 145 150 152 151 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.5 -54.0 -53.7 -53.6 -53.6 -53.6 -53.4 -53.4 -53.6 -53.9 -54.0 -54.1 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 11 11 10 11 10 12 11 11 10 11 10 700-500 MB RH 60 58 58 58 55 55 54 54 58 66 67 68 66 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 11 11 11 12 9 9 9 9 8 8 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR 14 22 31 46 53 56 57 52 32 33 22 11 4 200 MB DIV 20 4 -2 31 34 22 24 18 18 38 29 35 13 LAND (KM) 157 200 235 289 262 207 365 289 268 104 95 42 -153 LAT (DEG N) 12.2 12.5 12.8 13.2 13.6 14.3 14.8 15.2 15.7 16.2 16.7 17.2 17.7 LONG(DEG W) 61.2 62.8 64.3 66.0 67.7 71.2 74.8 78.0 80.8 83.3 85.6 87.8 90.1 STM SPEED (KT) 16 15 16 17 17 17 17 15 13 12 11 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 71 51 43 47 50 62 66 78 83 60 85 73 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 582 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 22.7 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 18. 21. 25. 28. 30. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 17. 24. 34. 42. 50. 55. 60. 61. 63. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 8. 12. 18. 25. 35. 42. 49. 53. 58. 60. 62. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL062007 SIX 09/01/07 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.1 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.4 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.3 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 71.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.7 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 Scaled RI index= 4.3 Prob of RI= 28% is 2.3 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 4.7 Prob of RI= 43% is 3.5 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062007 SIX 09/01/07 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY