* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * GIL EP102007 09/01/07 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 29 29 30 33 32 29 29 28 29 26 28 V (KT) LAND 30 29 29 29 30 33 32 29 29 28 29 26 28 V (KT) LGE mod 30 29 28 27 27 26 26 26 24 23 21 20 18 SHEAR (KTS) 9 7 7 2 2 1 4 4 9 8 11 12 14 SHEAR DIR 52 66 86 120 200 186 224 215 228 271 269 293 293 SST (C) 27.2 27.1 26.8 26.4 26.0 25.2 24.4 23.9 23.9 24.0 23.9 24.2 24.4 POT. INT. (KT) 135 135 132 128 123 115 106 101 101 103 101 104 105 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.5 -52.6 -52.3 -52.3 -52.5 -52.1 -52.1 -52.0 -52.0 -51.8 -51.6 -51.4 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 5 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 5 700-500 MB RH 65 64 61 63 63 59 61 58 56 52 52 48 45 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 10 10 9 10 10 8 7 7 6 6 4 4 850 MB ENV VOR 83 72 58 62 54 31 35 25 31 15 25 5 0 200 MB DIV -1 -19 -40 -18 10 4 -6 -5 -8 -15 -22 -10 -15 LAND (KM) 1013 1080 1151 1225 1281 1396 1520 1682 1853 2034 2060 1872 1726 LAT (DEG N) 18.6 18.7 18.8 19.1 19.3 19.6 20.0 20.0 19.8 19.8 20.1 20.0 19.9 LONG(DEG W) 119.5 120.5 121.4 122.5 123.5 125.4 127.3 129.2 131.0 133.0 135.1 136.9 138.3 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 10 10 10 9 9 8 9 10 9 8 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 557 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 19.1 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 11. 12. 11. 11. 10. 8. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -1. 0. 3. 2. 1. 1. -1. -3. -5. -4. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -2. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. 0. 1. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -1. -1. -1. 0. 3. 2. -1. -1. -2. -1. -4. -2. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP102007 GIL 09/01/07 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.3 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : -13.6 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.5 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.6 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 24.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.1 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Scaled RI index= 2.8 Prob of RI= 5% is 0.4 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 3.3 Prob of RI= 13% is 1.0 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102007 GIL 09/01/07 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY