* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES INPUT INCLUDED *
* HENRIETTE EP112007 09/01/07 06 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 45 50 56 64 71 87 99 105 108 103 103 93 81
V (KT) LAND 45 50 56 64 71 87 99 105 108 103 103 93 81
V (KT) LGE mod 45 48 51 54 58 66 72 75 75 71 64 58 50
SHEAR (KTS) 16 10 7 9 7 4 5 6 6 10 8 7 15
SHEAR DIR 61 74 52 65 81 318 280 238 250 241 202 205 191
SST (C) 29.9 29.7 29.6 29.4 29.1 28.5 27.7 27.0 26.3 25.7 25.0 24.2 23.2
POT. INT. (KT) 164 162 160 158 155 149 140 132 125 118 111 103 93
200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.4 -52.5 -51.9 -52.4 -52.3 -52.0 -51.9 -51.6 -51.3 -51.8 -51.3 -51.6
TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 10 11 9 10 7 7 6 6 5 5 4
700-500 MB RH 85 81 84 82 83 78 78 73 72 70 65 61 53
GFS VTEX (KT) 4 6 8 9 10 14 17 19 21 21 23 19 17
850 MB ENV VOR 29 28 38 43 39 48 52 63 70 73 49 44 28
200 MB DIV 64 74 93 98 44 36 50 24 14 41 4 0 -21
LAND (KM) 88 79 98 95 120 213 289 219 226 275 277 286 335
LAT (DEG N) 17.2 17.7 18.1 18.5 18.9 19.7 20.4 21.0 21.6 22.1 22.6 23.3 24.4
LONG(DEG W) 102.8 103.7 104.5 105.3 106.0 107.6 109.2 110.6 111.7 112.7 113.6 114.6 115.7
STM SPEED (KT) 11 9 9 8 8 9 8 7 6 5 5 7 7
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 5
T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 518 (MEAN=582)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 19.9 (MEAN=18.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.9)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 15. 16. 17. 16. 14. 11. 8.
VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 6. 8. 9. 8. 8. 8. 7.
PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3.
700-500 MB RH 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 7. 6.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 4. 5. 13. 18. 21. 25. 23. 28. 21. 16.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4.
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SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 4. 10. 17. 24. 40. 52. 58. 62. 58. 58. 47. 36.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0.
GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0.
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TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 5. 11. 19. 26. 42. 54. 60. 63. 58. 58. 48. 36.
** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP112007 HENRIETTE 09/01/07 06 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.8 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4
D200 (10**7s-1) : 74.6 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.9 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.5
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 84.6 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.3
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 94.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.9 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9
Scaled RI index= 4.7 Prob of RI= 58% is 4.5 times the sample mean(13%)
Discrim RI index= 4.5 Prob of RI= 53% is 4.1 times the sample mean(13%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112007 HENRIETTE 09/01/07 06 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY