* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED *
* FELIX AL062007 09/01/07 12 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 45 51 56 62 66 73 81 88 92 95 96 95 93
V (KT) LAND 45 51 56 62 66 73 81 88 92 95 96 56 37
V (KT) LGE mod 45 51 58 64 70 81 90 98 105 109 112 66 39
SHEAR (KTS) 12 7 2 9 13 9 8 5 9 3 5 5 13
SHEAR DIR 26 58 58 30 30 88 36 96 32 187 336 292 15
SST (C) 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.8 29.1 29.4 29.4 29.5
POT. INT. (KT) 152 150 149 150 148 148 149 149 150 154 159 159 161
ADJ. POT. INT. 158 155 155 156 153 152 152 150 150 152 156 154 154
200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.0 -53.7 -53.7 -53.9 -53.3 -53.6 -53.0 -53.7 -53.3 -53.7 -53.3 -53.8
TH_E DEV (C) 10 12 11 9 9 11 9 12 10 11 9 12 9
700-500 MB RH 58 57 61 58 56 56 57 58 60 63 64 60 64
GFS VTEX (KT) 12 11 11 12 11 9 9 9 9 8 7 6 5
850 MB ENV VOR 24 32 47 58 60 62 62 47 24 27 16 0 -1
200 MB DIV 5 5 26 31 33 42 17 6 12 12 8 0 25
LAND (KM) 177 209 245 221 168 220 366 360 102 13 67 -163 -44
LAT (DEG N) 12.3 12.6 12.8 13.2 13.5 14.1 14.5 15.0 15.5 16.0 16.5 17.2 18.2
LONG(DEG W) 62.8 64.4 65.9 67.7 69.4 72.9 76.2 79.4 82.4 85.2 87.6 89.9 92.0
STM SPEED (KT) 16 15 16 17 17 17 16 15 14 13 12 11 11
HEAT CONTENT 50 41 45 43 59 77 52 87 20 76 80 9999 9999
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 3
T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 565 (MEAN=625)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 28.8 (MEAN=20.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=69.0)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 13. 16. 18. 21. 23. 24. 24.
VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 2. 2. 3. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 12. 11.
PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. 8. 6. 4. 2. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2.
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SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 6. 12. 17. 22. 30. 37. 44. 49. 52. 52. 52. 50.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2.
GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 6. 11. 17. 21. 28. 36. 43. 47. 50. 51. 50. 48.
** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL062007 FELIX 09/01/07 12 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.4 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6
D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.5 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.7
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 72.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.8 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2
Scaled RI index= 4.1 Prob of RI= 20% is 1.6 times the sample mean(12%)
Discrim RI index= 4.5 Prob of RI= 38% is 3.1 times the sample mean(12%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062007 FELIX 09/01/07 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY