* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL982007 09/01/07 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 29 30 35 40 43 45 46 50 54 57 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 29 30 35 40 43 45 46 50 54 57 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 28 28 29 29 30 32 35 38 43 50 60 SHEAR (KTS) 28 26 25 23 18 15 13 18 9 11 1 4 3 SHEAR DIR 127 131 119 117 115 117 103 118 110 150 54 173 24 SST (C) 26.6 26.7 26.7 26.7 26.7 26.9 27.2 27.4 27.5 27.6 27.9 28.3 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 120 121 121 121 121 123 127 129 130 132 136 141 148 ADJ. POT. INT. 117 117 118 118 118 119 124 126 127 129 134 139 146 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -54.2 -54.2 -54.5 -54.2 -54.0 -54.0 -53.6 -53.6 -53.6 -53.9 -54.0 -54.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 8 9 9 10 10 10 10 11 10 700-500 MB RH 55 54 51 52 49 47 49 48 47 44 44 41 44 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 6 5 4 5 7 6 5 4 3 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 78 79 73 64 58 30 10 -12 -21 -22 -26 -16 -18 200 MB DIV -12 -21 -9 -8 -14 25 27 22 -37 -27 -34 -7 0 LAND (KM) 1875 1855 1778 1676 1578 1413 1247 1096 979 899 797 585 394 LAT (DEG N) 13.5 13.6 13.6 13.6 13.6 13.6 13.4 13.4 13.4 13.5 13.5 13.7 13.7 LONG(DEG W) 36.0 37.1 38.2 39.4 40.6 42.8 45.0 47.3 49.6 51.8 54.2 56.5 58.9 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 12 11 11 11 11 11 11 12 11 12 HEAT CONTENT 4 5 6 7 9 11 16 26 30 34 42 56 69 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 587 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 30.4 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 35.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 13. 18. 22. 25. 28. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -8. -9. -7. -5. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 6. 10. 16. 18. 21. 22. 26. 30. 36. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 4. 5. 10. 15. 18. 20. 21. 25. 29. 32. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL982007 INVEST 09/01/07 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.9 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : -12.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 92.5 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 32.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 30.4 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 Scaled RI index= 2.5 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 3.1 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982007 INVEST 09/01/07 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY