* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES INPUT INCLUDED *
* GIL EP102007 09/01/07 12 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 24 25 25 27 26 24 23 26 26 26 25
V (KT) LAND 25 24 24 25 25 27 26 24 23 26 26 26 25
V (KT) LGE mod 25 24 23 22 21 21 20 19 18 17 16 15 DIS
SHEAR (KTS) 9 7 5 5 2 3 1 1 6 4 13 13 18
SHEAR DIR 74 95 111 171 158 158 274 162 300 272 296 290 303
SST (C) 27.1 26.9 26.6 26.3 25.9 25.1 24.3 23.9 23.8 23.8 23.8 24.1 24.4
POT. INT. (KT) 134 132 129 126 122 114 105 101 100 100 100 103 106
200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.4 -52.1 -52.2 -52.3 -52.1 -52.1 -52.1 -52.1 -51.9 -51.8 -51.6 -51.7
TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 5
700-500 MB RH 62 60 62 60 59 61 60 58 59 54 54 50 47
GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 10 10 8 9 8 7 7 6 6 6 5
850 MB ENV VOR 63 52 55 46 31 31 17 25 22 23 14 14 2
200 MB DIV -12 -32 -14 11 -3 0 -11 6 -15 -18 -21 -34 -8
LAND (KM) 1068 1134 1204 1269 1317 1419 1537 1685 1860 2023 2112 1924 1736
LAT (DEG N) 18.7 18.8 18.9 19.1 19.2 19.6 20.0 20.1 20.0 20.0 20.1 20.1 20.0
LONG(DEG W) 120.3 121.2 122.1 123.0 123.9 125.7 127.5 129.3 131.2 133.0 134.6 136.4 138.2
STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 9
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1
T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 536 (MEAN=582)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 16.7 (MEAN=18.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=65.9)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6.
VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 12. 12. 13. 12. 10. 9.
PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -2. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4.
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SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. 0. -1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0.
GOES IR STD DEV 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -2. 0. -1. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -2. 0. 2. 2. 3.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -1. -1. 0. 0. 2. 1. -1. -1. 1. 1. 1. 0.
** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP102007 GIL 09/01/07 12 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.5 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7
D200 (10**7s-1) : -10.0 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.7 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.3
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.2 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 12.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.7 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0
Scaled RI index= 2.9 Prob of RI= 6% is 0.5 times the sample mean(13%)
Discrim RI index= 3.4 Prob of RI= 16% is 1.3 times the sample mean(13%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102007 GIL 09/01/07 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY