* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT MISSING * * HENRIETTE EP112007 09/01/07 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 49 54 60 68 85 94 101 101 102 96 90 76 V (KT) LAND 45 49 54 60 68 85 94 101 101 102 96 90 76 V (KT) LGE mod 45 46 48 50 53 59 64 68 69 67 62 55 47 SHEAR (KTS) 11 10 10 9 1 1 1 4 1 6 9 7 13 SHEAR DIR 56 48 75 72 358 77 195 195 115 114 217 150 212 SST (C) 29.7 29.6 29.4 29.1 28.8 28.2 27.6 27.0 26.4 25.6 24.7 23.6 22.7 POT. INT. (KT) 162 160 158 155 152 145 138 132 126 118 109 97 88 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -52.3 -51.8 -52.3 -52.4 -51.5 -52.2 -51.2 -51.7 -51.1 -51.6 -50.8 -51.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 11 9 8 9 7 7 6 6 5 5 3 700-500 MB RH 83 84 82 84 81 79 77 74 69 61 58 56 55 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 9 10 11 13 17 19 20 20 23 21 21 18 850 MB ENV VOR 27 38 37 36 33 40 41 62 56 65 50 36 6 200 MB DIV 75 107 88 30 19 92 23 59 8 38 -17 30 -12 LAND (KM) 92 117 122 153 200 318 322 275 279 305 281 264 197 LAT (DEG N) 17.6 18.0 18.3 18.7 19.0 19.5 20.0 20.6 21.2 22.0 22.8 24.1 25.6 LONG(DEG W) 103.8 104.6 105.4 106.2 107.0 108.6 109.9 111.0 112.0 113.0 114.0 114.8 115.2 STM SPEED (KT) 10 8 8 8 8 7 6 6 6 6 7 8 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 473 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 10. 13. 15. 16. 14. 12. 10. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 11. 11. 9. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 7. 6. 6. 5. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 1. 2. 4. 8. 15. 19. 22. 22. 25. 25. 23. 16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 15. 23. 40. 49. 56. 56. 57. 51. 45. 31. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 9. 15. 23. 40. 49. 56. 56. 57. 51. 45. 31. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP112007 HENRIETTE 09/01/07 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.0 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 63.8 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.5 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 84.4 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C:9999.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.9 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Scaled RI index= 999.0 Prob of RI= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index=999.0 Prob of RI= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112007 HENRIETTE 09/01/07 12 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING