* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * FELIX AL062007 09/01/07 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 68 75 80 84 93 100 104 108 109 109 108 106 V (KT) LAND 60 68 75 80 84 93 100 104 108 109 109 53 45 V (KT) LGE mod 60 69 77 84 90 100 107 112 117 119 121 58 49 SHEAR (KTS) 9 4 8 11 10 3 5 3 2 3 1 5 3 SHEAR DIR 24 33 32 36 51 128 99 323 64 265 355 336 34 SST (C) 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.8 29.2 29.4 29.3 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 151 149 149 149 148 148 149 148 150 156 159 157 161 ADJ. POT. INT. 156 154 154 155 153 151 150 147 147 152 153 152 154 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.8 -54.0 -54.2 -53.7 -53.7 -53.4 -53.6 -53.5 -53.6 -53.6 -53.7 -53.7 TH_E DEV (C) 12 11 10 9 11 10 12 11 11 10 12 11 13 700-500 MB RH 57 60 58 55 57 56 56 56 61 59 61 61 62 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 9 10 10 9 8 8 7 8 7 6 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR 30 39 48 52 55 56 51 30 29 18 13 0 1 200 MB DIV 12 12 35 39 35 34 19 13 20 34 6 8 17 LAND (KM) 207 238 205 153 148 358 304 286 104 97 10 -122 34 LAT (DEG N) 12.5 12.8 13.0 13.4 13.7 14.4 15.0 15.6 16.2 16.7 17.2 17.9 18.9 LONG(DEG W) 64.5 66.1 67.7 69.4 71.1 74.6 77.7 80.6 83.3 85.8 88.1 90.3 92.6 STM SPEED (KT) 16 16 16 17 17 16 15 14 13 12 11 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 40 44 42 59 59 70 70 85 62 84 80 9999 41 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 508 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 19.2 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 12. 12. 12. 13. 13. 13. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. 6. 9. 11. 13. 15. 16. 17. PERSISTENCE 4. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 9. 8. 6. 4. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 8. 14. 20. 24. 33. 40. 45. 49. 51. 51. 49. 48. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 8. 15. 20. 24. 33. 40. 44. 48. 49. 49. 48. 46. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL062007 FELIX 09/01/07 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 20.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.3 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.6 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.5 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 90.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.2 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 Scaled RI index= 4.6 Prob of RI= 34% is 2.8 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 4.8 Prob of RI= 45% is 3.7 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062007 FELIX 09/01/07 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY