* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED *
* INVEST AL982007 09/01/07 18 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 30 32 36 38 41 43 46 49 53 55
V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 30 32 36 38 41 43 46 49 53 55
V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 28 29 29 30 31 32 33 36 40 47 55
SHEAR (KTS) 23 23 22 18 16 16 20 10 13 3 8 6 7
SHEAR DIR 115 105 105 100 93 96 105 136 107 164 64 66 53
SST (C) 26.7 26.7 26.7 26.7 26.8 27.0 27.3 27.5 27.5 27.6 27.8 28.1 28.5
POT. INT. (KT) 121 121 121 121 122 124 128 130 130 132 134 138 144
ADJ. POT. INT. 117 118 117 117 117 120 123 126 126 128 131 135 140
200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.1 -54.2 -54.1 -53.7 -53.9 -53.6 -53.8 -53.6 -53.8 -53.7 -54.0 -53.8
TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 9 10 10 11 11 11
700-500 MB RH 53 54 53 51 49 53 49 49 45 43 41 43 41
GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 68 68 57 49 37 15 -11 -18 -32 -41 -26 -20 -13
200 MB DIV -16 0 1 -7 22 10 -10 -15 -35 -9 -17 -4 -9
LAND (KM) 1843 1781 1685 1602 1523 1370 1227 1086 983 884 846 663 482
LAT (DEG N) 13.4 13.5 13.5 13.6 13.6 13.5 13.4 13.3 13.3 13.2 13.3 13.4 13.6
LONG(DEG W) 36.9 38.1 39.2 40.3 41.3 43.3 45.3 47.3 49.3 51.3 53.4 55.5 57.6
STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10
HEAT CONTENT 5 6 7 9 10 14 18 26 29 34 37 51 61
FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0
T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 605 (MEAN=625)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 25.1 (MEAN=20.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=69.0)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 13. 18. 22. 25. 28. 30.
VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -6. -7. -7. -6. -4. -3.
PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2.
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SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 8. 11. 14. 17. 19. 22. 25. 29. 33.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2.
GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. -1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
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TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3.
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TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 6. 7. 11. 13. 16. 18. 21. 24. 28. 30.
** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL982007 INVEST 09/01/07 18 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.4 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4
D200 (10**7s-1) : 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 92.2 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 17.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.1 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3
Scaled RI index= 2.7 Prob of RI= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12%)
Discrim RI index= 3.3 Prob of RI= 7% is 0.6 times the sample mean(12%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982007 INVEST 09/01/07 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY