* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES INPUT INCLUDED *
* GIL EP102007 09/01/07 18 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 24 24 23 24 22 20 17 17 16 DIS DIS
V (KT) LAND 25 24 24 24 23 24 22 20 17 17 16 DIS DIS
V (KT) LGE mod 25 23 22 21 21 20 19 18 17 15 DIS DIS DIS
SHEAR (KTS) 9 7 4 2 3 3 1 8 11 15 17 20 20
SHEAR DIR 88 100 132 101 17 185 290 245 292 283 286 268 280
SST (C) 26.8 26.5 26.2 25.8 25.4 24.7 23.9 23.6 23.4 23.4 23.7 24.0 24.2
POT. INT. (KT) 131 128 125 121 117 109 101 97 95 96 99 102 104
200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.2 -52.3 -52.4 -52.3 -52.0 -51.9 -51.7 -51.7 -51.6 -51.8 -51.9 -52.3
TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 4 3 3 2 2 2 3 4 4 4
700-500 MB RH 59 61 57 57 56 58 57 57 54 50 47 43 39
GFS VTEX (KT) 10 9 9 8 7 7 6 5 4 4 5 3 3
850 MB ENV VOR 46 48 39 26 23 28 16 34 18 13 -5 0 -14
200 MB DIV -40 -15 8 -12 -19 7 -6 0 -4 -17 -17 -20 -14
LAND (KM) 1121 1192 1256 1304 1358 1476 1592 1720 1839 1999 2060 1861 1664
LAT (DEG N) 19.0 19.1 19.2 19.4 19.6 19.8 20.2 20.4 20.7 20.7 20.5 20.5 20.6
LONG(DEG W) 121.2 122.1 123.0 124.0 124.9 126.6 128.3 129.9 131.4 133.2 135.1 137.0 138.9
STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 7 9 9 9 8
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1
T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 579 (MEAN=582)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 19.3 (MEAN=18.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=65.9)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3.
VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 12. 11. 10. 8. 6. 4.
PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3.
THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -7. -6. -8. -7.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4.
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SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -8. -8. -10. -13. -13.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0.
GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -1. 0. -1. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -3. -5. -8. -8. -9. -11. -11.
** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP102007 GIL 09/01/07 18 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.8 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7
D200 (10**7s-1) : -15.6 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.4 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.2 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 33.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.3 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9
Scaled RI index= 2.8 Prob of RI= 5% is 0.4 times the sample mean(13%)
Discrim RI index= 3.3 Prob of RI= 13% is 1.0 times the sample mean(13%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102007 GIL 09/01/07 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY