* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * HENRIETTE EP112007 09/01/07 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 62 69 77 86 98 105 106 102 94 88 82 68 V (KT) LAND 55 62 69 77 86 98 105 106 102 94 88 82 68 V (KT) LGE mod 55 60 64 68 72 76 77 75 71 64 57 50 42 SHEAR (KTS) 10 13 8 5 7 4 1 3 4 8 7 9 10 SHEAR DIR 78 80 62 38 16 6 188 146 153 173 144 143 199 SST (C) 29.5 29.3 29.0 28.7 28.4 27.8 27.0 26.3 25.6 24.9 24.2 23.1 21.9 POT. INT. (KT) 160 157 154 151 148 141 133 125 117 110 103 93 81 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -51.8 -51.9 -51.9 -51.6 -51.6 -51.4 -51.4 -51.6 -51.7 -51.7 -51.4 -51.5 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 9 8 9 7 6 5 6 4 5 4 2 700-500 MB RH 82 80 82 82 80 79 76 70 67 64 63 57 50 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 9 13 15 17 19 21 21 21 21 20 21 18 850 MB ENV VOR 43 46 39 42 42 48 56 68 67 54 32 14 5 200 MB DIV 103 89 43 25 80 64 47 36 52 28 21 31 13 LAND (KM) 127 134 178 235 297 367 318 334 364 314 255 249 147 LAT (DEG N) 18.0 18.4 18.8 19.1 19.3 19.6 20.3 21.1 21.7 22.5 23.4 24.9 26.9 LONG(DEG W) 104.9 105.8 106.6 107.5 108.3 109.8 111.3 112.6 113.5 114.1 114.3 115.0 116.1 STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 8 8 7 7 6 5 5 6 9 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 471 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 13.8 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 10. 9. 7. 5. 2. -2. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. 8. PERSISTENCE 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 6. 5. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 4. 8. 12. 16. 16. 17. 16. 16. 16. 11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 6. 12. 20. 28. 40. 47. 48. 45. 38. 32. 26. 12. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 7. 14. 22. 31. 43. 50. 51. 47. 39. 33. 27. 13. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP112007 HENRIETTE 09/01/07 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.5 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 68.0 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.0 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 82.4 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 95.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.8 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 Scaled RI index= 4.7 Prob of RI= 59% is 4.5 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 4.6 Prob of RI= 58% is 4.4 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112007 HENRIETTE 09/01/07 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED