*   ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST       *
                    *        GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED            *
                    *  FELIX       AL062007  09/02/07  00 UTC   *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    65    72    77    81    87    95   103   106   108   108   108   104   103
V (KT) LAND       65    72    77    81    87    95   103   106   108   108    76    44    46
V (KT) LGE mod    65    72    78    84    89    98   107   113   115   117    85    46    58

SHEAR (KTS)        6    11    11    10     5     5     1     6     3     6     1     7     2
SHEAR DIR         21    11    17    35   119    17   157     7    93    84   186    41    57
SST (C)         28.7  28.7  28.7  28.6  28.6  28.7  28.7  28.8  29.0  29.2  29.4  29.1  29.2
POT. INT. (KT)   149   150   149   148   148   149   149   149   152   156   159   153   155
ADJ. POT. INT.   156   156   155   153   152   153   148   146   147   151   154   145   145
200 MB T (C)   -53.7 -54.0 -54.1 -53.7 -53.3 -53.6 -53.1 -53.7 -53.2 -53.6 -53.2 -53.9 -53.5
TH_E DEV (C)      11     9     9    12    11     9    11     9    11     9    12    10    14
700-500 MB RH     65    63    58    58    59    60    60    62    66    66    62    63    58
GFS VTEX (KT)      9    10     9     8     9     7     8     7     7     6     6     5     5
850 MB ENV VOR    37    46    58    63    61    58    39    28    26    10     3    -9    -7
200 MB DIV        16    18    34    35    36    33    23    13    19     7    -3    -1    36
LAND (KM)        222   186   129   124   209   354   350   138    50   130   -95   -13   145
LAT (DEG N)     12.6  12.9  13.2  13.6  13.9  14.6  15.3  15.9  16.3  16.9  17.7  18.7  19.9
LONG(DEG W)     66.1  67.9  69.6  71.3  73.0  76.4  79.7  82.3  84.5  86.7  89.1  91.1  92.7
STM SPEED (KT)    17    17    17    17    17    17    14    12    11    12    11    10    10
HEAT CONTENT      43    43    62    60    74    52    85    37    77    80  9999    22    28

  FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 16      CX,CY: -15/  1
  T-12 MAX WIND:  50            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  523  (MEAN=625)
  GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD:  15.7 (MEAN=20.0)
  % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD:  89.0 (MEAN=69.0)

                        INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                         6   12   18   24   36   48   60   72   84   96  108  120
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     1.   2.   3.   4.   6.   8.   9.  10.  11.  11.  12.  13.
  SST POTENTIAL          2.   4.   6.   8.  10.  11.  11.  10.  10.  10.   9.   7.
  VERTICAL SHEAR         0.   0.   0.   0.   3.   7.   9.  11.  13.  14.  15.  16.
  PERSISTENCE            3.   5.   5.   6.   6.   6.   6.   5.   4.   3.   1.   0.
  200/250 MB TEMP.       0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.
  THETA_E EXCESS         0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.
  700-500 MB RH          0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.
  GFS VORTEX TENDENCY    0.   0.   0.   0.  -2.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -3.  -4.  -5.
  850 MB ENV VORTICITY   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   2.   2.   2.   1.   1.   1.   0.
  200 MB DIVERGENCE      0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   0.   0.   0.
  ZONAL STORM MOTION     0.   0.   1.   1.   2.   3.   3.   4.   4.   5.   6.   6.
  STEERING LEVEL PRES    0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   2.   2.   2.   3.   2.   2.   2.
  DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   2.   2.   2.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SUB-TOTAL CHANGE       6.  11.  16.  21.  30.  38.  41.  44.  44.  44.  41.  41.

  SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
  MEAN ADJUSTMENT        0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.
  GOES IR STD DEV        0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  GOES IR PIXEL COUNT    0.   0.   1.   1.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  OCEAN HEAT CONTENT     0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL ADJUSTMENT       0.   0.   1.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL CHANGE (KT)      7.  12.  16.  22.  30.  38.  41.  43.  43.  43.  39.  38.

   ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX   AL062007 FELIX      09/02/07  00 UTC **
                    ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
 
 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT):  15.0 Range:-45.0 to  30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.8/  1.2
 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) :   8.7 Range: 35.1 to   3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.8/  0.6
 D200 (10**7s-1)       :  27.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.3/  0.3
 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)   :  89.4 Range:  8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.7/  1.3
 850-700 MB REL HUM (%):  71.6 Range: 57.0 to  88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.5/  0.1
 % area w/pixels <-30 C:  84.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.8/  0.5
 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP :  15.7 Range: 37.5 to   5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.7/  0.6
 
 Scaled RI index=    4.5 Prob of RI=  33% is   2.7 times the sample mean(12%)
 Discrim RI index=   4.7 Prob of RI=  42% is   3.4 times the sample mean(12%)

   ##         ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062007 FELIX      09/02/07  00 UTC         ##
   ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3                          ##
   ## AHI=  0   (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
   ##     ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY