* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * FELIX AL062007 09/02/07 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 72 77 81 87 95 103 106 108 108 108 104 103 V (KT) LAND 65 72 77 81 87 95 103 106 108 108 76 44 46 V (KT) LGE mod 65 72 78 84 89 98 107 113 115 117 85 46 58 SHEAR (KTS) 6 11 11 10 5 5 1 6 3 6 1 7 2 SHEAR DIR 21 11 17 35 119 17 157 7 93 84 186 41 57 SST (C) 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.8 29.0 29.2 29.4 29.1 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 149 150 149 148 148 149 149 149 152 156 159 153 155 ADJ. POT. INT. 156 156 155 153 152 153 148 146 147 151 154 145 145 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -54.0 -54.1 -53.7 -53.3 -53.6 -53.1 -53.7 -53.2 -53.6 -53.2 -53.9 -53.5 TH_E DEV (C) 11 9 9 12 11 9 11 9 11 9 12 10 14 700-500 MB RH 65 63 58 58 59 60 60 62 66 66 62 63 58 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 10 9 8 9 7 8 7 7 6 6 5 5 850 MB ENV VOR 37 46 58 63 61 58 39 28 26 10 3 -9 -7 200 MB DIV 16 18 34 35 36 33 23 13 19 7 -3 -1 36 LAND (KM) 222 186 129 124 209 354 350 138 50 130 -95 -13 145 LAT (DEG N) 12.6 12.9 13.2 13.6 13.9 14.6 15.3 15.9 16.3 16.9 17.7 18.7 19.9 LONG(DEG W) 66.1 67.9 69.6 71.3 73.0 76.4 79.7 82.3 84.5 86.7 89.1 91.1 92.7 STM SPEED (KT) 17 17 17 17 17 17 14 12 11 12 11 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 43 43 62 60 74 52 85 37 77 80 9999 22 28 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 523 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 15.7 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 11. 10. 10. 10. 9. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 0. 0. 3. 7. 9. 11. 13. 14. 15. 16. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 6. 11. 16. 21. 30. 38. 41. 44. 44. 44. 41. 41. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 7. 12. 16. 22. 30. 38. 41. 43. 43. 43. 39. 38. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL062007 FELIX 09/02/07 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.7 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 89.4 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 84.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.7 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 Scaled RI index= 4.5 Prob of RI= 33% is 2.7 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 4.7 Prob of RI= 42% is 3.4 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062007 FELIX 09/02/07 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY