* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * GIL EP102007 09/02/07 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 25 24 23 21 17 16 17 17 16 16 V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 25 24 23 21 17 16 17 17 16 16 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 25 25 24 22 21 20 18 16 DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 5 5 3 2 7 2 2 6 6 10 11 18 14 SHEAR DIR 102 146 192 132 150 251 241 282 260 288 268 274 255 SST (C) 26.4 26.1 25.8 25.5 25.2 24.4 23.8 23.6 23.7 23.7 23.7 23.9 24.0 POT. INT. (KT) 127 124 120 117 114 106 100 97 98 98 98 100 101 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.3 -52.4 -52.4 -52.0 -52.0 -51.9 -51.8 -51.7 -51.6 -51.4 -51.6 -51.8 TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 63 60 57 55 56 57 55 54 50 50 45 41 35 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 9 9 9 8 7 6 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 51 38 27 22 25 21 32 30 31 20 13 8 -1 200 MB DIV -16 -4 -17 -23 -21 0 -12 -8 -9 -9 -23 -5 -11 LAND (KM) 1177 1233 1278 1328 1381 1480 1620 1762 1899 2040 2091 1924 1790 LAT (DEG N) 19.2 19.4 19.5 19.6 19.7 20.1 20.3 20.3 20.1 20.2 20.3 20.5 20.9 LONG(DEG W) 122.0 122.9 123.7 124.5 125.3 126.9 128.7 130.3 131.7 133.3 134.8 136.4 137.7 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 8 7 7 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 549 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 26.6 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 35.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 10. 11. 12. 11. 10. 9. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -7. -8. -7. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -6. -7. -7. -9. -10. -10. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -8. -9. -8. -8. -9. -9. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP102007 GIL 09/02/07 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.4 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : -16.2 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.5 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.4 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 31.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.6 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 Scaled RI index= 2.6 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.2 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 3.0 Prob of RI= 6% is 0.4 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102007 GIL 09/02/07 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY