* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * HENRIETTE EP112007 09/02/07 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 62 70 81 90 102 108 109 104 95 88 78 64 V (KT) LAND 55 62 70 81 90 102 108 109 104 95 88 78 64 V (KT) LGE mod 55 59 63 67 70 73 74 71 66 59 51 43 33 SHEAR (KTS) 16 4 3 3 6 6 3 7 4 5 9 9 6 SHEAR DIR 59 63 55 307 344 323 152 146 159 163 152 188 189 SST (C) 29.3 29.0 28.7 28.3 28.0 27.3 26.6 26.0 25.1 24.2 23.3 22.5 21.9 POT. INT. (KT) 158 154 151 147 143 136 128 121 112 103 94 86 80 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.1 -51.9 -51.6 -51.0 -51.6 -50.8 -51.4 -50.8 -51.5 -51.2 -52.0 -51.7 TH_E DEV (C) 11 9 7 9 9 6 6 4 5 3 4 3 4 700-500 MB RH 82 83 81 80 78 77 74 69 64 62 60 60 57 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 12 13 18 20 21 22 23 22 21 21 19 16 850 MB ENV VOR 36 39 41 42 47 47 65 65 69 51 39 6 -3 200 MB DIV 83 45 49 82 83 51 80 46 54 1 30 24 58 LAND (KM) 145 196 251 307 375 319 326 349 317 278 303 160 7 LAT (DEG N) 18.3 18.7 19.0 19.3 19.6 20.1 20.7 21.4 22.3 23.3 24.5 26.0 27.8 LONG(DEG W) 105.8 106.7 107.6 108.4 109.2 110.7 112.1 113.0 113.8 114.5 115.3 115.2 114.6 STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 8 8 7 7 5 6 6 7 8 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 510 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. 7. 4. 1. -2. -6. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 10. 10. 9. 9. 8. PERSISTENCE 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. 5. 5. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 1. 3. 8. 13. 18. 21. 23. 23. 21. 21. 18. 12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 6. 13. 24. 33. 44. 50. 51. 47. 39. 32. 22. 8. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 7. 15. 26. 35. 47. 53. 54. 49. 40. 33. 23. 9. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP112007 HENRIETTE 09/02/07 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.7 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 68.4 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.7 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 82.6 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 95.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.5 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Scaled RI index= 4.8 Prob of RI= 60% is 4.6 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 4.6 Prob of RI= 58% is 4.4 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112007 HENRIETTE 09/02/07 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY