* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED *
* FELIX AL062007 09/02/07 06 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 70 75 79 84 89 97 103 107 110 111 109 107 104
V (KT) LAND 70 75 79 84 89 97 103 107 110 111 64 51 49
V (KT) LGE mod 70 75 80 85 90 100 108 113 115 116 68 56 66
SHEAR (KTS) 10 10 7 5 1 4 3 4 7 6 9 7 12
SHEAR DIR 24 23 52 147 97 91 356 35 353 39 310 305 316
SST (C) 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.8 28.8 29.1 29.2 29.0 28.9 29.2
POT. INT. (KT) 149 150 148 148 148 149 150 149 153 156 152 151 155
ADJ. POT. INT. 155 157 154 153 151 151 148 144 148 150 145 143 145
200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.1 -53.5 -53.1 -53.4 -53.2 -53.3 -52.9 -53.0 -53.0 -53.0 -53.0 -52.9
TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 12 11 10 11 11 10 10 11 11 12 11
700-500 MB RH 64 60 59 59 60 61 58 63 65 66 66 62 59
GFS VTEX (KT) 12 11 11 11 10 10 9 11 11 11 10 11 11
850 MB ENV VOR 38 47 54 54 59 54 34 35 18 11 12 15 11
200 MB DIV 24 47 47 41 40 22 16 41 38 40 26 35 16
LAND (KM) 172 114 105 213 341 335 245 88 70 84 -137 78 281
LAT (DEG N) 12.7 13.1 13.4 13.8 14.2 14.8 15.6 16.1 16.5 17.3 18.4 19.6 21.0
LONG(DEG W) 67.8 69.6 71.4 73.2 74.9 78.1 81.0 83.4 85.4 87.4 89.5 91.5 93.4
STM SPEED (KT) 17 18 18 17 16 15 13 11 10 11 11 11 11
HEAT CONTENT 40 63 61 74 61 73 82 64 83 63 9999 18 38
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 1
T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 517 (MEAN=625)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 18.3 (MEAN=20.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=69.0)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 9. 8. 7. 6. 4. 2.
VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 7. 10. 12. 13. 14. 14. 14.
PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -1.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2.
----------------------------------------------------------
SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 15. 20. 28. 34. 38. 41. 41. 40. 38. 37.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2.
GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 5. 9. 14. 19. 27. 33. 37. 40. 41. 39. 37. 34.
** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL062007 FELIX 09/02/07 06 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.6 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7
D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 84.2 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 68.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.3 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5
Scaled RI index= 4.2 Prob of RI= 26% is 2.1 times the sample mean(12%)
Discrim RI index= 4.4 Prob of RI= 34% is 2.8 times the sample mean(12%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062007 FELIX 09/02/07 06 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED