* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL982007 09/02/07 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 27 27 26 25 25 28 31 36 39 40 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 27 27 26 25 25 28 31 36 39 40 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 24 24 23 21 19 18 18 20 23 25 SHEAR (KTS) 25 22 23 23 22 28 24 19 6 10 6 15 14 SHEAR DIR 110 107 92 90 89 110 131 129 100 82 47 54 57 SST (C) 27.1 27.1 27.1 27.2 27.3 27.6 28.2 28.6 28.7 28.6 28.4 28.1 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 125 125 125 126 127 131 139 145 146 144 141 137 136 ADJ. POT. INT. 120 122 121 121 123 127 137 143 144 142 139 134 131 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.3 -54.1 -54.0 -53.9 -53.7 -53.7 -53.4 -53.6 -53.7 -54.1 -53.8 -54.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 57 54 51 49 48 46 49 47 48 48 53 51 52 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 41 31 22 6 -1 -27 -30 -19 -12 0 -3 -3 -14 200 MB DIV 0 6 27 19 1 -13 -25 -35 -34 -24 -6 -18 -8 LAND (KM) 1670 1606 1517 1440 1365 1197 1017 868 768 700 676 695 747 LAT (DEG N) 12.0 12.0 11.9 11.8 11.7 11.1 10.4 10.0 10.0 10.3 10.8 11.6 12.4 LONG(DEG W) 38.0 39.0 39.9 40.7 41.5 43.0 44.6 46.2 47.7 49.1 50.5 51.9 53.4 STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 10 8 9 11 14 19 30 44 44 33 39 39 40 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):235/ 9 CX,CY: -6/ -4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 665 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 3.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 9. 15. 20. 25. 28. 31. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. -1. -1. -5. -11. -16. -17. -18. -17. -17. -16. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -5. -6. -5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. 3. 6. 12. 15. 19. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. -1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 3. 6. 11. 14. 15. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL982007 INVEST 09/02/07 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.9 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.6 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.3 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 2.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.0 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 Scaled RI index= 3.0 Prob of RI= 4% is 0.4 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 3.6 Prob of RI= 13% is 1.1 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982007 INVEST 09/02/07 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED