* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * GIL EP102007 09/02/07 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 26 26 27 25 23 18 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 26 27 25 23 18 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 25 24 23 22 20 19 17 DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 5 3 3 4 5 3 6 6 5 15 20 19 15 SHEAR DIR 152 190 132 162 218 301 241 296 264 276 271 273 260 SST (C) 26.1 25.7 25.3 25.0 24.7 24.1 23.7 23.5 23.5 23.4 23.4 23.3 23.5 POT. INT. (KT) 124 119 115 112 108 102 98 95 95 94 95 93 95 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.7 -52.6 -52.3 -52.3 -52.2 -51.7 -51.6 -51.2 -51.4 -51.3 -51.6 -51.6 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 3 700-500 MB RH 61 58 55 56 56 52 55 49 48 43 39 32 28 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 7 7 7 6 5 3 3 2 1 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 38 22 18 24 24 18 34 25 38 14 23 14 18 200 MB DIV 5 -25 -35 -6 0 -17 10 0 -9 -27 -31 0 -1 LAND (KM) 1225 1263 1305 1350 1399 1500 1608 1714 1819 1927 2018 2077 1979 LAT (DEG N) 19.4 19.6 19.8 20.0 20.1 20.3 20.5 20.5 20.4 20.6 20.7 21.0 21.4 LONG(DEG W) 122.8 123.6 124.4 125.2 125.9 127.3 128.7 129.9 131.0 132.3 133.5 134.8 135.9 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 556 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 22.3 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 10. 11. 11. 10. 8. 6. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -7. -8. -9. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -8. -8. -11. -14. -16. -16. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 3. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 1. 1. 2. 0. -2. -7. -8. -10. -13. -14. -14. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP102007 GIL 09/02/07 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.3 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : -12.2 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 90.7 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.2 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 45.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.3 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Scaled RI index= 2.8 Prob of RI= 5% is 0.4 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 3.2 Prob of RI= 10% is 0.8 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102007 GIL 09/02/07 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY