* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * HENRIETTE EP112007 09/02/07 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 65 73 82 86 99 100 104 96 87 80 70 60 V (KT) LAND 60 65 73 82 86 99 100 104 96 87 80 56 49 V (KT) LGE mod 60 63 66 68 71 73 73 69 64 57 50 38 37 SHEAR (KTS) 5 2 1 8 5 3 4 3 7 9 9 8 11 SHEAR DIR 71 46 22 30 68 106 107 250 160 179 207 238 239 SST (C) 29.0 28.8 28.5 28.3 28.0 27.2 26.5 25.7 24.9 24.3 23.5 23.3 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 154 152 148 146 143 135 127 119 110 105 97 95 158 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.1 -51.5 -51.1 -51.6 -51.4 -51.5 -51.2 -51.7 -51.7 -51.7 -51.5 -51.8 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 9 9 8 6 6 5 5 5 4 4 3 700-500 MB RH 82 81 82 80 78 74 70 70 64 67 63 61 55 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 14 20 22 20 24 23 27 24 23 22 20 15 850 MB ENV VOR 37 37 38 35 40 54 68 66 45 37 20 -8 6 200 MB DIV 44 62 93 81 54 70 44 34 -1 2 29 13 32 LAND (KM) 203 252 301 347 393 297 264 253 185 125 92 -25 46 LAT (DEG N) 18.4 18.7 18.9 19.2 19.4 20.3 21.2 22.2 23.3 24.5 26.0 27.7 29.7 LONG(DEG W) 106.6 107.4 108.1 108.8 109.4 110.7 111.8 112.5 113.1 113.5 114.0 114.0 113.6 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 7 8 9 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 525 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 16.1 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 5. 3. 0. -3. -6. -10. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 10. 10. 9. 8. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 7. 6. 6. 5. 5. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 3. 8. 9. 16. 16. 22. 18. 17. 17. 13. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 4. 12. 21. 25. 38. 39. 43. 35. 28. 21. 10. 0. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 5. 13. 22. 26. 39. 40. 44. 36. 27. 20. 10. 0. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP112007 HENRIETTE 09/02/07 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.3 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 66.8 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 88.5 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 82.6 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 91.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.1 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Scaled RI index= 4.7 Prob of RI= 58% is 4.4 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 4.4 Prob of RI= 47% is 3.6 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112007 HENRIETTE 09/02/07 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY